NSW - SHOWERS CLEAR THE EAST WITH A WARM WEEK - WHAT ABOUT FOLLOW UP RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK.

A topsy turvy week of weather with the colder weather across the southern parts of the state today, shifting rapidly warmer throughout from tomorrow and by mid week, many centres could be up to 15C above where it is today - sending some western towns into the low to mid 30s! That is exceptional temperature shifting even for spring standards!!!


We have got a frosty start to the day following the rainfall in the southeast overnight, some of that precipitation over the southeast could freeze overnight with the cold night expected so some crops could be impacted by that.


Frost Risk Monday Morning.

Otherwise it is all about the week ahead - check out the video update below for the week coming. Rainfall charts are underneath that with further notes.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Main rainfall event now for the coming 10 days is located in the latter part of this week into the weekend with significant falls still possible despite model madness about. As mentioned in the video above, there is the chance models will continue to play around with rainfall as it tries to figure out the timing of the systems moving through ahead of the main feature. There is a weak front that comes through Tuesday that could interrupt the flow pattern for the moisture coming around the high through QLD. Otherwise a dry period leading up to the front approaching on Friday through the weekend which may drop 20-40mm through the southeast inland before spreading patchier falls further north and west. The rainfall may linger over the northern inland if the moisture hangs up along a trough.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pattern from this evening's Euro model is in good agreement with GFS in the shorter term with a clearing low pressure system and the residual showers and thunderstorms clearing the eastern and northern areas of VIC and the southeast of NSW tonight. The rest of the nation is dry under a large supply of cloud through the south but clear skies over the north. Storms over QLD will start to clear off overnight but they will return during Monday and Tuesday which could lead to moderate to heavy falls in scattered pockets through the subtropics. Then a weakening front coming through the southeast may be the interrupting element of bringing that moisture from QLD through the central parts of the nation. As outlined last week we had moisture streaming into SA, but models are adjusting that moisture further east tonight meaning the more widespread rainfall could be over the southeast inland, leaving light falls for SA, but again this remains to be seen and is an idea on the table. The moisture may linger over the outback next week which could south and east through SA, NSW and QLD, we have seen other runs showing that developing in the second week of September. Otherwise, the big feature are the temperatures as well, well above average temperatures for the east and southeast will be replaced by well below average temperatures from this time next week while over the north, the humidity will return leading to a few showers and thunderstorms.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall is expected to reaming heaviest the further east you are through southern Australia, I think that is the best rule of thumb tonight. However with these spring like systems, they can evolve rapidly and as we have seen from run to run the rainfall spread is moving around the east and south of the country. So I would say if you are riding the rollercoaster of model data, GET OFF NOW!. My interpretation is to wait for the front to develop in real time mid week and see how it progresses through the nation. In the short term, the focus of storms over the northeast of QLD could be quite productive during Monday and Tuesday but we are moving into the time of year where the rainfall distribution is quite uneven and so guides for rainfall in summer can be quite useless. Otherwise dry weather continues for large chunks of WA away from the SWLD.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

This will be crucial to watch over the coming days, how far west does the moisture come from QLD through the outback deserts into Central Australia and then through SA and picked up by the front remains the BIG QUESTION, as I outlined in the video. Otherwise the moisture once the system moves through into the medium term also remains up in the air, as outlined in the medium term forecasting update earlier today, the rainfall could kick off again next week which could provide some inland rainfall for areas that have gone months without a drop. So that will be an area to watch as well. So significant weather thanks to moisture rolling through the country in combination with the high temperatures clashing with the colder airmasses following cold fronts. This evening run wants to introduce a large deck of drier air behind a cold front at the end of the run, which I am not buying at this time.

Another possibility this week with the large scale system.

And another possibility where the airmasses clash over the Bight.

Let me know what you think in the comments section if you like the video content more. Trying to strike a balance between how much you have to read before the app is being developed which will make the product easier to view on the devices.


Thanks for your support.



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