The wet weather is slowly on the increase during the next week or so with the climate drivers starting to move towards a favourable phase, bringing back moisture and lower air pressure towards the state, leading to more widespread cloud and rainfall and cooler than average temperatures for many.
The past 2 weeks we have seen that nice clean out of moisture in direct result to the SAM turning negative for the first time in 4 months, and that brought an end to the flood and severe weather period. But the moisture and rainfall is set to return, the full scope of the climate impacts will become clearer as we move through the coming days.
There is a low to moderate chance of a severe weather event for the state during the coming 2 weeks, with heavy rainfall leading to further flooding issues the biggest concern right now.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to remain patchy over the coming days with scattered showers and thunderstorms about with uneven distribution of rainfall. The showers along the east coast have gone for the coming 2 days but they will be back as we move into the weekend, that is thanks to the winds turning easterly. A few weak fronts passing over Tasmania are expected to move into the Tasman but behind those, some colder air could be drawn northwards into the moist southeasterly flow, this increasing showers over parts of the coast from the weekend into next week. The second component is the stalled trough over the inland of NSW and QLD throughout next week which is expected to deepen then being fed moisture from the easterly winds, will see the showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread and the potential of severe thunderstorms will start to rise from this time next week. Finally, the tropics could begin to play a part of feeding moisture into the low pressure from the north so many areas could see widespread falls as we track through next week, becoming more widespread as we go throughout the state, perhaps bar the far west.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop through Thursday afternoon over southeast inland areas, the ACT up to about Sydney and west to about Dubbo and south to Albury. Thunderstorms unlikely to be widespread or severe at this time. The risk mainly between 12-10pm.
DATA - Refer to the video for more information with regards to the short and medium term analysis
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
The nation still remains in a dry airmass with only showery weather for the far east coast and along the southeast coast with a weak trough and front. Showers and storms quite thin in the air over parts of the northern tropics. Over the course of the next 5 days, the upper pattern will start to cool and become more unstable over much of the north and through eastern Australia. The climate drivers which have been covered off extensively, the SAM and MJO, will rotate around to be in phase, producing a pattern more supportive of widespread rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, starting about coastal areas but then spreading inland. In advance of more widespread rainfall over the inland of the nation, scattered showers and storms should feature through much of the NT, QLD, NSW and extend into VIC before we see more organised weather emerge later in the period and into the medium term. Models now showing the monsoonal weather to emerge at the end of the month into early March.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
No change to the guidance with the moisture gradually increasing across the central, northern and eastern parts of the nation with the wind patterns supporting the moisture to pool over the southeast and east of the nation. The weather over in the southwest and south are expected to be drier than normal with the prevailing wind pattern running over land, meaning dry hot winds for southern WA and western SA and parts of the southern NT.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
Refer to video for more and the state based fly around and analysis
A closer look in - this rainfall guide will be changing I can assure you!
More details coming up tomorrow from 8am EDT with a look tomorrow at Winter 2022 at a glance and to see where the data takes us and how that stacks up against previous outlooks and years.