NSW - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH AND WEST MID WEEK - INCREASING ON THE WEEKEND.

The weather has certainly been damp in pockets today, with moderate rainfall around the ACT and southern areas and also north of the cloud band with scattered storms and moderate to heavy falls about. The weather indicative of the humid weather and instability aloft. Though the trough is moving north and away, with rainfall contracting out of southern areas, the rain and high humidity will continue for the remainder of northern and northeast NSW with thunderstorms about.


Over the remainder of the week, the trough over the inland will move west bound into SA with another trough forming over the central districts. This trough will become the focal point of heavier weather so for a period, it could be very warm and humid in NSW with only isolated showers and thunderstorms about. The weather along the coast, a few showers in onshore winds.


The weather will turn more thundery next week as the trough out of SA begins to move east and brings a more orgnanised period of showers and thunderstorms again for the the state as we approach Australia Day.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall guide looks promising for those wanting more, but the devil is in the detail. A lot of this will fall during the coming 24-48hrs and then again in the back half of the period with the weather dominated by a trough and high humidity. The weather is expected to support heavy rainfall with thunderstorms, so your number will vary from place to place. Note the trough next week bringing more widespread rainfall, that could be bringing the chance of heavy falls and flood risks back to the inland of the state. Also eyeing off the monsoonal weather up north which may produce more moisture coming down via upper northwest winds in combination with the persistent easterly winds. More rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to develop through later this month into February from the monsoonal activity.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms will impact a very similar area to today with the coverage most widespread over the northern interior bordering QLD with heavy rainfall the main issue through the region. The thunderstorms will be more isolated over the Upper Western through the afternoon and evening and will likely clear out of the Lower Western.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash Flooding a moderate chance at best through the northern inland with thunderstorms. We saw flash flooding reported from a few locations during Tuesday within a broad zone and that will apply to tomorrow as well.

Severe Weather Watch

The chart is showing SA but it is a heads up ahead of the trough moving eastwards mid next week which could produce more widespread rainfall and severe weather via thunderstorms. This will translate east next week.

DATA - More information can be found in the video with the daily breakdown nationally for the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The modelling will chop and change as we go along, it is high amplitude, dynamic and this lends itself to being volatile. So use this as a guide. The takeaway is, humid, more unsettled than normal, wetter than normal for many areas away from the SWLD of WA and severe weather chances increasing for northern, central and eastern areas of the nation. Be aware that tropical systems up north will change you rainfall odds as well from run to run.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

I don't think I have seen it as moist across the nation since the Brisbane Floods of 10 years ago. So this is a dangerous atmosphere and with this main ingredient for rainfall running at near record levels, that means all we need is deep instability to produce heavy rainfall. With the slack upper level wind profile, that means areas slated in for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms could see that persist for multiple days increasing flood risks. So there is a lot of concern from me in relation to each low pressure system that moves across the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information can be found in the video.

A closer look in. In areas that are seeing the mottled and uneven rainfall guide here, be aware that with the moisture content at near record levels in some locations, that could result in some areas recording 50-100mm in an hour from slow moving thunderstorms, so this is a guide!

More details coming up this evening looking at all things modelling and rainfall, especially important information for those staring down a lot of moisture and rainfall forecast in the coming week.



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