Thunderstorms rumbling through parts of the north and northeast are set to increase during Tuesday with a deepening trough over the inland portions of the state. Deep moisture on and east of the trough is where you will find the severe thunderstorm potential with heavy rainfall, large hail and damaging winds all a risk.
The storm activity that flares this afternoon may lead to areas of rain and thunderstorms with locally heavy falls over parts of northeast NSW which may dampen down the ongoing severe thunderstorm risk, however heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is also possible here.
Storms are likely to be more isolated during the afternoon and evening over southern districts and will likely extend that risk to the VIC border and Alpine areas.
Wednesday through Friday, storms will continue for the eastern two thirds of the state with heavy rainfall a risk through this period. The storm risk contracts east and north during the weekend with a drier and stabalising southerly flow.
Next week, the troughs are likely to deepen and the risk of further rain and thunderstorms over flood zones is possible as is heavy rainfall potential for parts of the east coast with onshore winds, feeding a trough of low pressure.
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is more scattered but where it falls it will be heavy and lead to flash flooding once again most days throughout this period. The rainfall will tend a little more widespread during Wednesday and Thursday for southern areas with a trough passing through the state. Rainfall could be heavy even in southern inland areas before the humidity and rainfall is contracting north and east by the weekend. Further rain and thunderstorms will linger about the coastal areas in the east with onshore winds near the stalled trough, and cycle repeats into next week.
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday
Thunderstorms are likely to continue for the state, more scattered over the northern inland of the state. Thunderstorms will carry the risk of all modes of severe weather, the closer you are to the QLD border. The weather over the southern areas of the state is likely to remain below severe thresholds.
Flash Flood Risk Tuesday
Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will be the main risk throughout this period with a very deep moisture supply. Thunderstorms will be very efficient producers of rainfall in this environment as we have seen in past days in QLD, where 100-150mm has fallen in some areas.
Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday
Damaging winds with stand alone heavy thunderstorms carry the risk of strong and squally outflow winds as heavy rainfall under these large storms.
Large Hail Risk Tuesday
Large hail also a risk along the QLD border with the stronger storms immediately along the trough, west of a rain and thunderstorm area clearing east. The hail risk is in regions that start out with sunny skies.
Riverine Flood Risk This Week
Riverine flooding is ongoing through large parts of the state and this will continue for much of this week, though renewed peaks may be observed over the northern inland of NSW along the Namoi, McIntryre and Peel Rivers
DATA - More details on this in the video - but this shows you the flow pattern of major ingredients in the coming 10 days or so.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
More details on this after 9pm tonight in the full model and rainfall wrap.
There is a very sharp drop off in rainfall but note the uneven distribution of rainfall throughout the east.
If all the ingredients come together, the eastern parts of the nation could see excessive rainfall once again.
KMA - Rainfall Next 12 days
Something to watch - with this solution an outlier, but not too far away from what is possible.
More coming up in the rainfall and model wrap after 9pm EDT.