The spring time weather continues to unfold as we track a high over the Tasman and a ridge through to the southeast and back up into central parts of the nation. That will keep the western areas of the state mostly dry but for those on and east of the Great Dividing Range, more of the same, partly cloudy with showers from time to time with thunderstorms over the northeast districts.
The temperatures will be warming up as we track through the outlook period, even with a trough passing through over the weekend, next week the signals are for a nice warm up before we see a substantial shot of moisture being fed across the country and into the southeast and eastern inland of the nation, that brings the better chance of rainfall.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 days
No change in the rainfall distribution for the coming week with the drier signal for those west of the divide with elevated temperatures and for those on and east of the GDR, we are looking at periodic showers and thunderstorms as the troughs start to form as the seasons change. We have already seen the impact of the climate drivers on the storm season so far and the rainfall so far this spring, so you may want to enjoy the break west of the divide before the next batch of rainfall arrives in the state from around next Thursday onwards.
Closer look at the wet weather over the northeast - storms will drop heavier rainfall through this period - ie 65mm at Coffs Harbour today alone.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms once again popping up over the northeast of the state, more likely over the far northeast where storms may turn severe, though again the risk probably more likely through QLD. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall likely to feature if storms turn severe, the large hail risk likely over QLD once again.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday
Heavy rainfall with showers along the coast tonight could result in flash flooding. Thunderstorms overnight and into Thursday could bring some heavy falls at times, which may result in flash flooding in some locations, again the risk higher closer to the QLD border.
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Damaging straight line winds are expected with storms running through QLD, these may drift into far northern NSW during the afternoon and evening.
Large Hail Risk Thursday
Large hail risk may clip the far northeast during the afternoon and evening with the most potent air sitting back over QLD.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
As per the video - the Euro is the solution I am siding with. Note the flow of westerly winds is being pushed south and all of a sudden severe weather season has erupted as per my forecasts on that back in July. We are looking at more of the same over the coming 4-5 days, a persistence forecast. The cooler weather over the southern coastal areas will be replaced by a warmer phase next week and then we will likely see the stormy daily events over northern Australia, shift further south through next week and come into the southeast and eastern inland by the end of the month into early November. This is the typical seasonal shift.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
The moisture again is building over the tropics and with a warmer atmosphere it lends itself to promoting more volatile weather which we have seen over QLD and NSW over recent days, larger scale rainfall events as well, the air can hold more moisture so when the low pressure systems return, be aware that it will be raining a lot. For now we continue with a drier picture for those under the upper high over eastern SA, western NSW and QLD as well as northern VIC. The east coast sees showers and storms in that humid airmass that gets stuck, which extends over the tropics which is typical. Be aware the forecast confidence beyond day 5 is poor at the moment.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more details.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more guidance - but that is a warmer pattern with scattered storms across the country.
More details on all things rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT.