NSW - SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND, LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL FOR THE EAST COAST.

The wet weather continues after heavy rainfall during the past 2 days, with many areas recording above average rainfall. Flooding has developed through QLD again and it is expected to develop through northeast NSW over the coming few days.


With the persistent easterly winds, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue for the east coast with locally heavy rainfall from tomorrow through Friday before easing on Saturday as the trough weakens along the coast.


Across the inland, the trough is expected to remain near stationary. This will provide dynamic support for showers and thunderstorms most afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are possible.


Next week the weather forecasting remains of low confidence with the pattern very complex with some of the models suggesting another trough that comes in from WA, becomes slow moving through the southeast inland cradled by a high, but other models pushing the trough through efficiently with drier air moving through.


Therefore be aware your forecast temperatures and rainfall will change from day to day as we move forward and all your wonderful Apps will be of no value.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall will remain above average for the eastern third of the state including the ACT with scattered showers and thunderstorms on and west of the divide with locally heavy rainfall and severe weather possible through the next 4 days at least. Along the coast, the trough sitting offshore will continue to drive heavy rainfall, locally intense, with some areas being impacted by flash and riverine flooding. The trough over the east will ease and the rain intensity will also ease by about Saturday at this time, but the showers will continue through the weekend and next week with further moderate falls. Depending on the synoptic scale next week, the showers may even clear for a period ahead of the next trough developing over southern areas early next week. Rainfall is likely to remain low confidence so better to take the rainfall forecast as a guide but understand, you could see all of what is forecast here in a sitting from a thunderstorm over inland areas, but some could get less than what is forecast.

NORTHEAST NSW

The significant rainfall is expected to continue over the coming 2-3 days before easing. Inland showers and thunderstorms to continue over the next 3-4 days with locally heavy falls with flash flooding the main concern. The coverage of rainfall may decrease a little through the weekend and contract south.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will continue from this evening into Thursday with thunderstorms carrying a very high chance of turning severe through the higher probability zones with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Heavy rainfall expected to drive the flash flood risk to very high levels over inland areas with thunderstorm activity and along the coast with onshore stream showers and areas of thundery rainfall. As seen in QLD and NSW in recent days, more of this is to unfold again over the coming 24 hours This is related to thunderstorm driven rainfall as well as the coastal trough driving heavy coastal rainfall.

A closer look at the protracted risk for the east coast north of Sydney. This is related to the coastal trough and not the thunderstorm activity inland.

DATA - Refer to video for more information regarding the short and medium term daily break down and much more.


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The surface pressure pattern remains of low confidence, very complex which means that areas under severe weather potential need to pay attention to the forecast guidance, warnings and weather radar very closely over the coming days. Some areas could see high end severe weather, so if you are living under warning or excessive rainfall and thunderstorm potential, be weather aware. The west and south central areas look mostly dry and quiet. Another trough next week over the southeast offers another round of severe weather potential with severe thunderstorm activity. That system could produce more flooding issues for some parts of the southeast as well if it is allowed to pull in the moisture from the north and northeast. Tropical weather highly volatile and this will produce severe weather up north, but the track is undetermined meaning that anywhere from Darwin through to Broome need to watch closely. If that tropical low northwest of Darwin moves west bound, then rainfall numbers and moisture will start to come up for WA into March.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Very deep moisture at near record levels along the east coast will lead to above average to near record rainfall potential rivalling last years flood events. So be weather aware in these regions along the east coast. The moisture from the northeast winds will fuel an upper trough over the inland and you can see that take place on this animation. Drier air trapped back over south central and through southern WA and into the central interior. The moisture may begin to shift around the nation depending on the tracks of tropical weather over the north.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

CMC 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - the forecast confidence for the east coast is high confidence for further heavy rainfall but for the remainder your number will vary and the troughs next week remain of low confidence given the mixed climate drivers signals, in particular the SAM.

More coming up with the rainfall and model wrap after 8pm EDT, it will be interesting reading and reflection.

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