The Summer weather is finally here, a dry heat for much of the north and west with little rainfall about. The stormy weather will return to the southeast and southern parts of the state tomorrow with a decent chance of severe thunderstorms for the southeast third, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall about.

The storm risk is near 0 for the northeast third of the state but the risk of storms returns to this area during Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures are expected to remain very warm for large parts of the east including much of NSW with some locations cracking the low 40s later this week into the weekend ahead of another trough that will link into modest moisture, scattered showers and storms are expected to emerge once again across the weekend.

Some of those storms over the state this weekend could once again be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

No broad rain events are anticipated at this time, so expect the storm lotto to continue for the region.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

As mentioned, the forecast is supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms delivering the rainfall and therefore expect the coverage of rainfall to remain uneven and patchy, but there will be some areas recording 1/2 to 1 months worth of rainfall out of thunderstorms, but these locations will be harder to find. The coverage of thunderstorms on the weekend may become a little more widespread than what is being modelled so will keep an eye on that. The west largely dry for now, though moisture does approach just on the other side of Christmas and it is likely rainfall chances will come up over New Years state wide.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely to simmer down this evening over the southeast. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop early morning, mainly elevated over the southern inland, but isolated in nature. The main window of thunderstorm activity will be from 2pm-12am tomorrow and once again concentrated over the southeast inland and the ACT.

Damaging Winds Wednesday

A moderate chance of damaging winds with thunderstorm activity that gets up and away during the afternoon and evening, with the upper level wind profile supporting strong straight line winds with the strongest of storms over the southeast inland and the ACT.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms will cause pockets of flash flooding through the region, but the higher risk will be found with broader clusters of storms and if storms train over the same region during a number of hours.

Large Hail Risk Wednesday

Large hail is considered a low risk throughout the region. The forcing may not be supportive of this but will review again during the morning and update accordingly.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern remains fairly wavy over the south and drier than normal over the northern and central parts for the coming few days before normal weather returns for the most locations. The welcome drier phase for most of the nation is anticipated to continue for another week generally, there will be pockets of thundery weather about with bursts of heavier rainfall, but widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated for the next week. It is in the medium term that the conditions shift, we see the tropics turn more active and the moisture increase from north and east, through to the south. The wild card clearly is the tropical lows over the east and northwest, and IF the pattern allows for this to occur, then my forecasting will turn very wet and the flood risks will return to large parts of the nation. I will be around during Christmas in the event of severe weather unfolding and major impacts for you all nationwide.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture presentation is unchanged from this morning for the short term, it is in the medium term that you will find the moisture tends deeper and more widespread and shifts southwards towards SA, NSW, VIC and the ACT. The warmer weather will turn more tropical and the rainfall chances will increase through the last week of the year on this current guide while remaining warm. The west coast of WA, dry for a while.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video blog.

A closer look in - the numbers are starting to tick up and we are losing the drier slot over the northwest from the short term, showers and storms will return to the state in general from Christmas onwards.

More details after 9pm on all things rainfall and modelling, it is now getting interesting in the medium term.

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