NSW- SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOME IN THE NORTHEAST - LARGE STORM OUTBREAK THIS WEEKEND.

The weather over the coming day or so, fairly settled and becoming very hot! Temperatures are set to soar thanks to a hot airmass over northwest Australia, sweeping southeast into the eastern inland ahead of a fast moving cold front this weekend.


That trough will assist in bringing a cooler southeast and southerly flow over the weekend for southern districts but help in kicking off a batch of strong to severe storms and a middle level moderate rain band as well for southern and central areas, which may turn out to be a productive rainfall event for some.


The wet and thundery weather is likely to contract further north and east during early next week to where the trough stalls out, and a high should start to encroach southeast Australia clearing the south.


The humid air will remain over QLD and northern NSW during much of next week, leading into Christmas with scattered showers and storms about most afternoons and evenings.


An outside chance of showery weather increasing along the eastern seaboard with onshore winds returning. Some of the showers moderate at times leading into Christmas. This will be once the high pressure system moves into the Tasman Sea.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is patchy through the coming 24 hours with that thunderstorm activity passing through near and east of a trough over northeast areas. The main rainfall for the state is likely across the state from later Saturday but Sunday, with a middle level cloud band developing in response to tight thermal gradient setting up across the region with low 40s to the north of the trough and high teens to the south of the trough. Some moderate rainfall is likely Sunday before that trough moves north and weakens. Next week the remains of that trough will spark isolated showers and thunderstorms developing, before that activity increases as the moisture deepens and onshore winds freshen on top of a high pressure system passing through the Tasman Sea. There will also be a trough approaching from the west during the latter part of next week and over Christmas which may spark a rain event just outside of this period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms should be mainly isolated through the afternoon and evening with some storms possibly gusty and heavy at times. The thunderstorm activity restricted to northeast inland areas of the state.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging winds are a low risk over the northeast inland of the state with some of the heavier middle level storms that develop.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash Flooding is a low risk during Friday afternoon and evening over the northeast inland with middle level storms that develop.

Excessive Heat Warning Saturday

This is the severe weather to watch over the weekend, particularly Saturday with a very deep pool of hot air passing through the state ahead of a trough in gusty northwest winds. Many of those wanting to dry out will not be complaining I am sure.

DATA - Refer to the video for more details!


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern from now into Christmas remains largely unchanged from this morning's analysis so expect the confidence to remain fairly low in the placement of moisture and troughs through the coming days, that is due to the models trying to figure out what the monsoonal weather will do north and east of Australia. More information on that in the video.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The forecast confidence is quite low on all elements and this will play havoc with the moisture spread throughout the nation in the short and medium term. The one system that does offer a higher chance of spreading moisture southeast and east across the nation is the trough passing through this weekend, no rain expected from the system as it passes through drier air over SA and WA but once it moves into eastern VIC and into NSW, it will find the moisture and see rainfall increase. Beyond then the moisture builds over the northern tropics and things start to look very unstable over the northern tropics moving forward into the end of year. Where the tropical weather goes, so too will the humid weather and rainfall chances.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video.

A closer look in - note the numbers move around over and over again. More details coming up at 9pm EDT

More to come after 9pm EDT on all things rainfall, there is little confidence in the medium term with the tropical weather playing havoc across the agencies so remember, LOW CONFIDENCE nationally!




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