The showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening on and east of the Great Dividing Range with some turning severe with heavy rainfall and gusty winds in isolated pockets. The flash flooding is the main concern with thunderstorms today.
The storms will be back during Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially over the east northeast along the dividing range. The risk of flash flooding continues with thunderstorms but they will be more scattered than today.
By Wednesday through Thursday, another trough is expected to increase the showers and thunderstorms across the state, with locally heavy falls leading to flash flooding the main concern but also large hail and damaging winds.
Then we track a low pressure system is expected to pass in from SA through western areas of the state with areas of rain and thunderstorms. Locally heavy falls are expected to pass through central and northern areas of the state but there may be moderate to heavy falls also as far south as the southern Riverina into the ACT and the southeast as well.
The weather is expected to dry out as we track through the weekend with a blustery southwest to southerly flow. Showers will take a while to clear the southeast of the state with a low lingering.
Next week starting out more settled under ridging.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to be widespread through this period with extensive heavy rainfall expected over large parts of the nation including NSW. The bulk of the heavier rainfall in the coming days related to thunderstorm activity. Then a broad area of heavy rainfall will sweep in from the west and north with a trough and low pressure from Thursday into Friday before clearance commences from Saturday for the state. The weather remaining mostly dry into early next week with ridging in place.
Rainfall Next 10 Days - Southeast NSW and ACT
Rainfall Next 10 Days - Central West NSW
Rainfall Next 10 Days - Northwest NSW
Rainfall Next 10 Days - Northeast NSW
Rainfall Next 10 Days - Southwest NSW
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday
Thunderstorms are expected to be more widely spaced during Tuesday with the risk of severe thunderstorms small but not 0. Flash flooding is the main issue IF thunderstorms are able to organise.
Flash Flood Risk Tuesday
Flash flood risk is a low chance along the GDR during the afternoon and evening.
DATA - You can find more details in the video at the top of the page.
GFS 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
The weather turns humid and unsettled once again in about 9-10 days time for much of the nation so only a small window of dry weather expected.
GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days
GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
Moisture returns in about 10 days time with a trough lifting the weather into showers and storms once again.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
More weather coming your way at 9pm tonight with a wrap of all things rainfall.