The rain and thunderstorms of previous days is starting to thin out but the scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in place for the coming 2-3 days as another upper trough begins to move through the state. The storms likely to be more potent over the southeast and ACT with this system before the focus begins to move northwards along and east of the divide this weekend.

We are still eyeing off a number of troughs next week with a deepening low pressure system near VIC potentially bringing about the chance of severe storms once again from this time next week.

The humidity also expected to stick around for a lot of next week leading to more heavy rainfall potential.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be patchier, more hit and miss as we track through the coming few days, and concentrated over southeast and eastern parts of the state. The interior will see a few storms this evening and again tomorrow before a dry weekend. The activity contracts northeast along the stalling boundary but then this trough recycles west again into the interior and sets off another batch of showers and thunderstorms from early next week over inland NSW with a fairly good chance at this time for severe thunderstorms under the current guidance once again. A more organised rainfall event is possible at the end of the run (later next week)

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected to simmer down this evening over inland and eastern parts of the state before they return once again as the trough over VIC begins to move further towards the east. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding possible with large hail also possible in a few spots. The thunderstorms peaking during the day time heating process.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Flash flooding is a high risk across a broad region. So despite this, not everyone will see severe thunderstorm activity, but if you get a storm, like today, you will know about it with heavy rainfall rates given the higher atmospheric humidity values and that slow storm motion.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Low to moderate risk of large hail, mainly in the east during the afternoon and evening with the risk mainly between 2-10pm

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Thunderstorms once again peaking during the afternoon and evening with damaging wind gusts likely with any storm through a broad area once again.


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More details can be found in the video with the daily run through. Note the monsoonal activity increasing in the medium term which will dictate the rainfall forecasts nationwide and temperature spread through the nation.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture content remains very high over the northern and eastern parts of the nation though we are starting to see some reduction in the humidity values for the southern states if you were to believe the GFS this evening. I will have a full wrap on rainfall and modelling after 9pm EDT. But the moisture is likely to build up dramatically for northern and eastern Australia regardless of the modelling with the climate drivers in place and this will influence rainfall chances moving forward through to mid month. The early arrival of the monsoon is gathering pace and as mentioned, that will impact the rainfall forecasts beyond about 7 days.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

As mentioned in the video - going beyond 10 days rainfall is useless as the model madness continues surrounding the tropical low/monsoonal activity appearing on the charts. This means anything beyond 7 days carries a very low confidence. But I will show you the impact that the tropical weather has on the rainfall forecasts tomorrow when we compare side by side. For now the east is still expected to be wet and the north increasingly wet. The west remaining mostly dry for a while, but not for the coming 16 days.

More details on the model madness and rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT.

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