NSW - SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK ON FRIDAY ALONG THE RANGES - SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND COAST.

The fine and dry weather will continue for the inland areas for the most part over the coming week, despite the rumblings of major rainfall breaking out next week. The overall confidence on that feature later next week is low and will keep an eye on trends, but for now, the forecast over the coming week is generally dry and stable over the inland.


For the coast, passing showers in a southeaster will isolated thunderstorms on the ranges to the west of the coast will feature over the next 2-3 days before conditions once again clear next week.


Temperature wise, hot over the inland. Some areas could sit in the high 30s to low 40s for a good part of the weekend and into next week ahead of the slow moving trough and southeasterly change that will slowly work north and east over the coming days.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall likely to remain on and east of the divide through the state through the short term with the southeast to easterly winds and a weak trough supporting the shower coverage. For those on and west of the divide, mostly dry and warm to hot weather for a good portion of this period. There are rumblings of moisture returning over inland areas from mid next week which may give rise to a few showers and thunderstorms later next week ahead of a trough and southeasterly change. Some of the modelling has been very robust on the rainfall front but I am not jumping on that just yet. Something to watch.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms tonight will simmer down as a southeasterly change continues to move north. That change will spawn another round of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, but severe weather is not likely at this time though thunderstorms could bring gusty moderate rainfall.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information where I will use the CMC model data again this evening


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern is largely unchanged again on the GFS which is good for forecasting consistency. Still looking at a relatively quiet week nationally with the wet weather over the north and east, below average for this time of year. Dry weather for another 7 days for southern Australia with heat levels on the rise with upper ridging and surface high pressure close by keeping things quiet. A deeper trough over in the west of the nation will remain in the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue, more likely over the Pilbara and the Outback at this stage. The tropical weather very quiet and still eyeing off a 1/30 year dry spell for February if it does verify. Things may start to shift as the SAM turns neutral and then positive towards the end of the month introducing more opportunities over the eastern parts of NSW and QLD. Also the MJO may be moving into phase near Australia bringing wetter weather at the end of the month into March, which could improve rainfall chances nationally.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The lack of moisture is in response to the negative SAM phase over the Southern Ocean which is lifting the drier westerly winds towards the continent. The weather over much of southern and eastern Australia therefore under stable and dry influence. The north of the nation also impacted by the dry air through the interior and east with below average rainfall to continue and that is also in part with the MJO out of phase sitting over the Indian Ocean. The area seeing above average moisture levels are over northwest Australia.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - rainfall coverage is increasing for coastal areas in the medium term as the SAM returns to neutral and then back to positive values - which will lead to easterly winds redeveloping and rainfall/humidity coming back. But inland areas could well be dry for the next 2 weeks. We will see.

More weather coming up from 8am EDT. A nice quiet period is not uncommon through February even in La Nina years, so make the most of it for those of you on the land.






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