The week is relatively settled for most of us, with a large upper high and dry air in place, but as we track through the weekend, a trough through SA will be pushed along by a cold front south of Tasmania, leading to more unsettled weather conditions allowed to develop from later this week into the weekend.

Along the coast, a weak onshore flow is producing a few showers with easterly winds. Over the inland isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible mid week and these could turn more scattered over the weekend and during next week. The coverage of rainfall statewide is expected to pick up.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

The weather is expected to be mostly dry with a upper high in place. Light winds and hot weather for most of you will continue until the weekend. With a few showers and thunderstorms in the mix, some of you may get a surprise fall of rainfall later this week but most should remain dry. Now next week, the showers along the coast are forecast to increase and the showers over the inland are expected to become more widespread as a trough deepens from western QLD and draws moisture from the northeast and east. The rainfall along the coast will also increase next week. That is in line with the SAM tending positive.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over far western areas of the state during the the late evening. There may be a few thundery showers about the elevated terrain about the southeast and east, but even here, the coverage very thin but some nice clouds about the state, but the upper high should keep a lid on any widespread activity.

DATA - Refer to video for further information on the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

I do love persistence forecasting, no change from this morning, as spoken about, the main climate drivers at play, the SAM and MJO are set to become in phase to produce rainfall and cooler weather for southern, eastern and northern Australia than what we are seeing right now. Inland areas are currently missing out while the coastal areas are recording some pretty hefty shower coverage of eastern QLD and northeast NSW, that is seasonal. The weather is expected to become more humid over inland areas and over northern Australia as the drivers start to combine with the La Nina that is the overarching driver, to bring back that wet weather, severe weather potential and flood risks back. So make the risk of the drier spell while it lasts.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture content is still below average at the moment but that is likely to shift over the coming week and turn above average from mid next week onwards with the onshore winds and the monsoon returning to the picture. So very different weather conditions are expected to form in the coming 10 days, setting the stage for a wet end to the month and a wet start to March.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

A closer look in - more details in the video

More details coming up tomorrow morning from 8am EDT.

The rainfall and all things modelling posts will return when the guidance improves regarding the rainfall, those posts may return from later this week.

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