NSW - SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST, A STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTH, FINE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

It is a process of the trough moving through the state during the coming 24 hours meaning a drier and more stable southwest to southerly flow is expected to take over the inland areas, sweeping the moisture to about the northern third and east of the divide. This weekend looking pretty good for most of the inland.


The humidity will hang up over the northeast through the weekend and combined with the trough and wind convergence, thunderstorms are forecast to feature with some of those storms tending severe once again.


Next week I am watching that trough over the northeast being propelled to the west of the divide introducing the unsettled weather back to the inland and then that weather is set to increase once again mid next week, the arrival of an upper trough to spark a more widespread rainfall event, but where that evolves it is uncertain.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The hit and miss showers and thunderstorms tonight will contract north tomorrow to be in the north and northeast with the risk of a few moderate to heavy falls under thunderstorms but the rainfall coverage is much more scattered than last weekend. The moisture will return back to the west of the divide and a few showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Monday through Friday next week with a more widespread rainfall event likely to pass through during mid to late week with a stronger upper feature before that passes east by the following weekend. Moisture is forecast to increase once again into the medium term with further rainfall potential.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are forecast to remain active overnight through parts of the north but begin to wane from dawn. Thunderstorms will redevelop from the afternoon and evening with the chance of severe storms, with damaging winds, heavy rainfall and large hail all possible.

Flash Flood Risk Saturday

With the high atmospheric moisture levels, storms are a good chance of producing flash flooding throughout the northeast of NSW, especially where wind convergence does occur. Given the saturated catchments, heavy rainfall will lead to waterways responding quickly.

Damaging Winds Risk Saturday

Damaging winds with the strong storms quite likely through northeast NSW, especially over the Great Dividing Range and points east.

Large Hail Risk Saturday

Large hail risks remain low to moderate with a relatively moist airmass aloft. The forcing is sufficient for small hail but marginal for larger stones but will review in the morning and update if there are any changes.

DATA

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More thorough information in the video - but watching the following - the monsoonal flow up north, the severe weather threat over the east and southeast next week and the heatwave out west.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The east is on the cusp of another prolonged period of very high moisture levels. If the westerly surge in the medium term does not verify and remains easterly, I think many over the south and east may be in trouble relating to flooding. Note the very deep moisture over the north of the nation. And the southwest drier and hot for most of this period.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video.

A closer look in - the heavy rainfall over the east will move around a bit, and expect the falls to wax and wane over the coming days.

More weather coming up from 7am EDT




59 views0 comments