NSW - SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST, DRY WEST, STORMS NORTH AND EAST. A MIXED BAG THIS WEEK.

The weather is all over the board depending on where you live. In the far west, you will have smooth sailing with stable weather for the best part of 10 days with no complications.


For southern areas, a few showers and thunderstorms tonight will be back on Wednesday and rain may be about to start Thursday before clearing into the weekend.


For southeast areas, showers and thunder tonight will clear but further showers and thunderstorms developing tomorrow with areas of rain tomorrow night and further rain and locally heavy falls into Thursday and Friday before clearing this weekend.


For northern and eastern areas, showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow and they will be back tomorrow through Friday before the trough clears eastwards for the weekend.


Lets have a look at the latest.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be widespread and heavy over the southeast of the state, that is clearly the area of most interest over the course of this week. Flood potential is running high as we track a deepening upper low over the southeast and the convergent easterly winds wrap into this system. Near and south of this low will determine who gets the heavier rainfall. Further north and east of this feature, showers and thunderstorms along a trough will continue. To the west of this feature relatively benign weather is anticipated to continue. The weekend, conditions settle down before we track high pressure eastwards and increasing temperatures are forecast next week with a run of drier days with some luck.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms will continue overnight and into Wednesday over Central and Northern inland areas of NSW near a trough stalled out. The thunderstorm activity will begin to increase during the afternoon and evening with storms turning severe once again with all modes of severe weather likely. The thunderstorms over the southern areas will turn to areas of heavy rainfall later tomorrow night into Thursday.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding is a high chance over a broad area, but as per today, they will be connected to thunderstorms and not everyone will get a direct hit. However, with catchments saturated, this will support flash flooding travelling long distances through inland areas, so even if you do not get a drop, flash flooding will travel more freely.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds also a high chance over a broad area, winds of up to 100km/h with stronger cells is possible. Isolated destructive wind gusts/tornadic activity is not impossible but less than 2%.

Large Hail Risk Wednesday

Large hail is possible over the northern and central inland where the air is more unstable and supportive of robust updrafts. The hail risk is moderate at this time. If supercells form, the risk of giant hail is about 5% at this time.

Riverine Flood Risk Thursday through Saturday

Areas of rain and thunderstorms over southeast NSW and the ACT will be supportive of riverine flooding developing during this period. The area of highest risk wil be refined during the coming day or so and expect changes, but in this region, be prepared for heavy rainfall in coming days and hope for the best.

The flood zone potential. This may be adjusted in the morning but really the focus is in the southeast.

DATA - To cut down the reading, you can catch the latest details on the data sets in the video above


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Pointing out the tropical low in the Coral Sea dragging in the monsoon but away from Australia hence the drier outlook.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details on this coming up from 9pm EDT

A closer look in - be aware that the rainfall numbers will move around with that low pressure system over the southeast. So be prepared for more changes.

More coming up in the PM Edition of the rainfall and model wrap after 9pm EDT.

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