NSW - SEVERE WEATHER PEAKS TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST THEN A SLOW RETURN TO SEASONAL WEATHER

The weather has been once again producing above average rainfall across large parts of the eastern inland of the country, once again pumping widespread falls over the disaster zones from earlier this month and leading to record rainfall accumulation. Now once we see the trough lift offshore by Wednesday, conditions should begin to ease for many of you in that northeast corner in particular.


The showery weather will likely contract to extreme coastal areas with the southerly winds strengthening as a high combines with the deepening low pressure system over the Tasman Sea. So windy, cold and showery weather for the coast this weekend is likely.


For areas inland, drier and much cooler conditions with the potential for cold starts. Not quite frost weather just yet, but not far off for some of you in the southeast of the state.


Next week, temperatures will begin to increase as the flow pattern turns easterly, once we get that high pressure system into the Tasman Sea and knocking out the low towards NZ. The weather remaining dry throughout the sequence for western districts and there is a very small chance we could see some light showers early next week near an upper trough but if you are living west of the divide, a dry 10 days is expected.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain heaviest over the east coast north of about Taree tonight with some areas getting closer to 200mm in 24hrs. Hard to draw that in but be aware, that some areas could see some very heavy rainfall as this upper low moves through and then clears offshore in the middle of the week. Widespread showers along the coast will continue for the remainder of the week into the weekend as a deepening low forms in the Tasman Sea and becomes slow moving. The flow pattern dictating the spread of the shower coverage inland but at this time, the pattern looks to be southerly so the wet weather remaining over the extreme coastal fringe. The inland will see a few showers and thunderstorms tonight but they will clear by tomorrow, but southeast areas of the state near a trough passing through during tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday, could see a reasonable burst of showers and storms on that as it glides through. So areas around the ACT and points towards the south and southeast of the state be aware you could see a reasonable drop in the coming 2 days before the dry weather sets in. Not much rainfall is expected for the west for the coming 10 days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to remain active overnight through northern and northeast inland parts of NSW with thunderstorms causing significant flash flooding issues for parts of the northeast. Thunderstorms will be slow moving along the coast and form into bands overnight and into Tuesday with the weather contracting eastwards through the afternoon and clearing the inland at night.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Flash flooding of greatest concern over the coming 2 days remains about the northeast bordering QLD with thunderstorms also causing significant flash flooding in isolated pockets about the northern inland before that risks eases on Tuesday evening.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video but we are moving into a quieter period of weather following severe weather in the east and the slow easing of the widespread storm activity over the west. This period of about 2-3 weeks will be a period of transition and should be expected for many of our Ag Areas as we move through to the cooler season. The weather over the northern tropics is expected to be thinning out too.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

You can see the limited moisture over much of the nation through this period away from the west coast and over the east and up over the north. But as we move through the period, you can see that seasonal shift starting to take shape, the first real long period of dry weather and low rainfall totals for the nation as a whole in about 9 months.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - watching the upper low over the weekend post this severe weather event to see if it can squeeze out a few showers and storms over the western interior this weekend or early next week but otherwise many areas inland dry. The rainfall over the north comes in 2 waves, one early in the period and one later.

More coming up from 8am EDT. I will return to the rainfall and model posts from mid week once we get the severe weather event off the board.


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