NSW - SEVERE WEATHER EASING TONIGHT, SEASONAL WEATHER FOR THE OUTLOOK

The severe weather is pulling away from the east coast as mentioned and that is in part thanks to the low pressure system offshore the Northern Rivers moving eastwards and the upper trough moving away. The system kicking it out, is a weak trough over southeast NSW which is expected to send up a strong and gusty southerly flow along the NSW coast through the coming 24hrs.


The low pressure system is working with the high to the west of the state to send up a strong and colder gusty dry southerly flow which is clearing out the inland. No rainfall of any consequence is expected at this time for inland areas for the remainder of this outlook.


The low pressure system over the Tasman Sea will continue to remain slow moving to the south and could then adopt a westerly track this weekend and bring a burst of squally rainfall to areas south of Batemans Bay into the extreme southeast inland with moderate to heavy falls possible.


Then that low finally moves away from the coast later Sunday as high pressure builds over southern Australia, this leading to a much more settled and seasonal Autumnal pattern for the state.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to ease further over the northern coast in the flood zones with a drier southwest to southerly flow in place. Scattered showers will run parallel to the coast with a few inland thunderstorms but severe weather is not anticipated related to rainfall. For the remainder of coastal NSW, scattered showers will persist through the next 4 days with moderate to heavy falls developing about the South Coast from about Batemans Bay to the VIC Border. Some of that moderate to heavy rainfall could extend inland to the dairy country of the Southeast. The weather for areas along and to the west of the divide, generally dry, cooler with no rainfall expected through the remainder of the period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to run along the coast and we could see one or two about the northern and central coastal escarpment during the afternoon and evening. No severe thunderstorms are expected though they could be gusty with strong wind squalls over 45 knots in open waters. A very low risk of a waterspout for coastal areas with scattered showers and thunder in the region.

Severe Weather Watch - Friday through Sunday

There may be some severe weather issues about the southeast of NSW relating to strong to gale force winds and high seas, but now adding a moderate risk of flash and riverine flooding if the low moves westbound in the coming days. So be on alert in the region

MEDIUM TERM WEATHER - April 6th-13th 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

The moisture remains very limited through the outlook period and may begin to be drawn in via the upper level northwest flow from the Indian Ocean over WA. This may feed a trough in the region with a few showers and inland thunder. But overall the moisture is very much limited, the tropics seeing a large reduction in moisture overall, however we may see a wave of tropical weather pass east to west north of the nation which could be drawn south and southeast into the nation after this period. Will watch that risk. Low level moisture along the east coast in onshore easterly winds will produce a few showers but with the upper levels warm and stable, severe weather is unlikely here and quite frankly anywhere through the nation beyond the short term forecast above this.

Rainfall Anomalies

Now you may be thinking that because it is dry through the coming 2 weeks for many locations that it should be a brown map across the country. That is not how it quite works and in terms of seasonal expectations, this is the weather you should be seeing across the country. A reduction in rainfall for a 2-4 week period from late March into April is normal. It is what helps set up the term Autumn Break. A break in the pattern is still some 2-3 weeks away at the earliest and I do think we will see wetter weather emerge across the country from around Easter onwards and we usually see a significant drop in temperatures from ANZAC Day onwards into early May. So dry for a while in southern and central Australia and becoming drier over the northern tropics as we see the transition period begin through the region.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are likely to be seasonal to above seasonal in most areas away from the northeast coast of QLD and parts of the NSW coast where onshore winds will continue to feed low cloud and low level moisture. So temperatures here could be marginally below normal. For the southwest, the stagnant high sitting to the southwest of WA could land the far southwest in below average temperatures. Elsewhere the weather is forecast to remain warmer than normal, but not baking hot at this time, however will watch trends. Seasonal weather for the north with humidity values coming down.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pattern is slowly stablising as outlined in the video. We just have to watch carefully the impact of the low pressure system about the northwest and west coast of WA and how that evolves in the coming day with a moderate risk of severe weather. Over the southeast there could be another wave of severe weather for far southeast NSW and east Gippsland which carries a low to moderate confidence. If you are not in these zones, settled weather is the headline forecast with clearing skies and more sunshine than cloud for the next 7-10 days. So take advantage of the quieter weather period.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

PW values are set to drop behind this trough moving through the southeast and as the low deepens in the Southern Tasman Sea, it will combine with the high pressure ridge over west of SA and lead to a strong southeast to southerly flow propelling the drier air northwards. This will filter throughout large parts of the nation with a clear and warm nation from Sunday through much of next week. Moisture may creep back in through the medium term from the northwest and over the tropics with a tropical wave and via the easterly winds over NSW and QLD.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the southeast of NSW need to pay attention to the forecasts and will also watch the severe storm potential on Saturday or Sunday for the northeast portions of the state. Some adjustments to the forecasts will be coming and quite dramatic for some on current guide.

More coming up from 8am EDT with a look at the severe weather potential tomorrow and Winter 2022, the first look at the middle of the year!




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