NSW - SEVERE WEATHER EASING FROM SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS RESUMING EARLY NEXT WEEK

And with the last of the storms tonight pushing east, a drier airmass will return to much of the state, though a moist tail of air will linger over the southeast of NSW and the ACT as well as along the coast with showers and a few storms possible again on Saturday afternoon.


Sunday, a fast moving cold front will slide over the south and southeast of the nation bringing a burst of showers over southern inland of NSW with a colder shift early next week with a few showers.


A stronger system could bring more widespread rainfall later next week with moderate to heavy falls possible about the southeast inland once again.


Lets take a look.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is ongoing and heavy in pockets tonight with severe thunderstorms in the mix over the east. A few isolated falls near 10mm possible on Saturday before conditions clear the east coast. Another light spread of showers later Sunday through Monday with a weakening cold front. Then we will watch the trends for that larger scale system develop from mid to late next week which may bring another more widespread belt of rainfall for the state.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are likely to return during the afternoon and evening for the southern and southeast inland of NSW as well as the coastal fringe with convergent winds. No severe weather is expected as the upper atmosphere begins to modify and warm. Drier air will be pulled in on Sunday as the frontal weather passes through the southern parts of the nation.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Once we lose the severe thunderstorms over the east tonight, the weather turns sharply drier for QLD and most of northern NSW through the coming days. The southeast will see a shift into westerly winds and this clearing the moisture and instability east of the nation come the close of Saturday. A series of fronts passing over the nation commenced today, we saw a strong system pass through WA today, that is moving over southern SA on Saturday afternoon and into the southeast states Sunday. A follow up front passes through on Monday with the weather turning cooler with showery weather continuing. The weather over the eastern inland remaining dry and seasonal. A strong front will approach SWLD of WA during Monday night into Tuesday and bring a burst of showers and gusty winds, this system then passing rapidly into the southeast by Wednesday. A pre frontal trough may drag moisture down into the system from the northwest and provide a burst of showers and thunderstorms for central and eastern inland areas, and further rain along the southern coasts. At the end of the run we see another system pass through the nation which offers more rainfall for central and eastern parts of the nation. The north through this period, humid, unsettled over the tropics in the afternoon with the usual pop up storm. For tropical QLD it should be mostly dry.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The soupy air that has made it feel very humid is now in the process in moving east, and by the end of Saturday it will be replaced by another pulse of moisture coming in with a decaying front, but the lower levels will dry out. The moisture throughout the atmosphere becomes seasonal with a usual amount of dry air and moisture floating about but it is in the latter part of the period, the weather is expected to turn more humid nationwide, the GFS showing this in the medium term.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall in the east will ease off overnight with the southeast remaining damp off and on this week with a series of cold fronts passing through. The weather over the southwest also seeing a good supply of rainfall for October. Over the north, patchy falls to begin with but the coverage will improve as the moisture increases and seeps south, as per the GFS as well.

There are no high end rain events in the coming 7 days at this time.

A closer look.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to the video for more details.

More details coming up during Saturday morning. Have a great Friday night.


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