NSW - SEVERE WEATHER EASES TONIGHT, BACK TO SEASONAL WEATHER THIS WEEK.

The weather is starting to ease for the coastal areas from Eden through to about Sydney overnight and the winds also beginning to ease as the low pressure moves into the Tasman. On the back side of the low pressure system, you will see drier air surging northwards and overnight temperatures as a result, will drop below double figures for many inland areas.


So for the state we are seeing a shift in the high humidity, wet weather. The change in the airmass over the inland will be felt in the overnight temperatures and the day time temperatures on the rise with brighter skies and lighter winds.


The weather generally for many throughout the state looking much better as we track through to the weekend with lovely amounts of sunshine and seasonal weather.


Over northern areas, there is the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms over the weekend with isolated moderate falls near a weak trough. Along the coast, the onshore winds will keep the showers going, but overall, the weather is no where near as robust and dynamic as it has been in the past 3 weeks.


Next week, temperatures should be on the climb for inland areas with many of you heading into the 30s with a northwest to northerly wind ahead of a trough which could bring a few showers and thunderstorms as a cooler southerly moves through mid next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain heavy tonight between Sydney and the Victorian Border with onshore winds and the troughs rotating around a low pressure system offshore continuing to bring the severe weather. This rainfall should tend to showers along the coast and these decreasing tomorrow and fine weather returning to some areas of the coast by afternoon. Clearing skies over much of the inland with a dry airmass as the upper ridge and surface ridge moves into the state from the west with cool nights and mild to warm days to continue. A new trough over the inland of QLD may dip into northern NSW during the weekend producing a few isolated falls. A new trough out of SA may merge with this feature from this time next week bringing about a few more showers and thunderstorms for some inland areas but no organised rainfall event is expected at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely to emerge during the afternoon and evening about the northeast where a trough connected to the departing low continues to move northeast and north with storms likely severe along the QLD border with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main issues at this time.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall and intense rainfall over flood zones will lead to additional flood problems for some localities. Flash flooding will be a very easy element to achieve in the current climate.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging straight line winds will feature with thunderstorms organising into squall lines as they march east and northeast throughout the afternoon and evening.

DATA - Refer to video for more information on the short and the medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest data coming in off the GFS is amplifying the moisture a little over inland NSW and QLD as well as dipping it into the ACT and through northern VIC from the weekend into next week ahead of a larger trough coming out of SA mid next week. I am not so sure on that idea, but there will be showers and thunderstorms about. I am not convinced on the coverage being that widespread but will watch trends. For the east coast, onshore winds will drive showers onto the NSW and QLD coasts at times through this period. The tropics looking fairly unsettled with showers and storms increasing in coverage with the MJO starting to emerge in the Indian ocean and then rotating around the north of the nation at the end of the month potentially and into April. The west coast will see a few showers and thunderstorms as a result of the trough nearer the coastal areas this weekend before clearing inland but there may be better rainfall chances as we move into the medium term if moisture can be drawn out of a tropical feature running through the Indian Ocean.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Certainly seeing the drier air filter throughout much of the south and southeast with some areas to feel that more likely throughout the overnight periods with clearer skies and temperatures will be likely able to cool and heat more efficiently. So more typical weather for Autumn is likely. The weather over the northern tropics remaining seasonal with the humid air remaining in place. The east coast still impacted by heavy low level moisture but over the inland of the east, moisture levels are coming down, they will pick up again through the weekend and next week but nowhere near it has been. The weather out west very dry, the drier air being trapped the for days will likely continue for a while, but with a southerly change developing this weekend, low level moisture may return to coastal areas bringing cloud and drizzle patches following storms inland. If the MJO develops next week then we may see more moisture building up over the Indian Ocean which could be propelled across the nation. But it is conditional.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - refer to video for further analysis for those needing more information on what is next in terms of rainfall for the region.

More details coming up with all models and the rainfall information after 8pm EDT tonight. See what the next few weeks brings us. Also refer to the 6 week outlook for my take on that information and more.


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