The severe weather is expected to continue overnight with the weakening low near or just on the Hunter and Central Coast bringing heavy rainfall and gale force winds. There is additional flood peaks to develop as a result of this through the Hunter and Central Coast and maintenance of the flooding for the Sydney coast and points southwards.
Severe thunderstorms are still possible over the NE of NSW this evening and into Friday morning with another trough rotating around the northern flank of the low.
Another upper low will approach the western parts of the state during Saturday and become slow moving on Sunday and Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, locally severe with all modes of severe weather possible. Some of the storms could produce giant hail again for pockets of eastern NSW and near the ACT.
Depending on the location of the upper low over the course of the early part of next week, areas of rain with heavy falls may redevelop over coastal areas and this has been coming and going from the guidance, but something to watch very carefully. We will know more on this once we get to about Saturday and track the upper low in real time through our state.
Some indications of drier weather developing for the southern half of the state during the early part of next week with a southerly flow developing. But that southerly wind could invigorate a trough over the north of NSW and keep the showers and storms with higher humidity in place across these areas right through next week.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to be quite widespread in the east of NSW. The west of the state and parts of the northwest likely to be dry right through the period, in fact rather sunny thanks to drier air and ridging. The rain and thunderstorms will increase again during the weekend as the upper low over VIC moves into the southern inland over the Riverina and then rides northeast to be over the Central West during Saturday and Hunter by Sunday and then becomes slow moving Monday. Above average rainfall potential continues for the eastern third of the state with torrential falls possible if the low sits in the right spot, additional flooding potential is possible but this element remains very tricky to forecast ahead of time.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms may continue from overnight and into Friday morning over northern NSW with storms turning severe with all the ingredients to produce all modes of severe weather. In the south we could see a few showers and thunderstorms approach the southern border with VIC later in the day with the new upper low on the approach. Over the east coast, a few rumbles of thunder amongst the showers is possible but the severe weather should be confined through VIC and in the far NE of NSW.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday into Friday
Areas of heavy rainfall with a low pressure system near the coast around Gosford is forecast to wash out and as a result the rainfall will ease overnight but flash flooding and riverine flooding is possible tonight. There may be flash flooding with thunderstorms over the northeast of NSW and a low chance over the far south tomorrow night with the new system.
Large Hail Risk Thursday into Friday
A moderate risk of further large hail across the northeast of NSW and southeast QLD during Friday afternoon and a low risk for parts of VIC but this shows you where the upper disturbances will be packing a punch.
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday into Friday
A moderate to high risk of damaging winds over the NE of NSW and SE of QLD with a low risk over parts of VIC ahead of the upper low.
Flash Flood Risk Friday
Heavy rainfall is still occurring with thunderstorms over the southeast this evening and likely overnight and again during Friday afternoon but the coverage of storms during the morning may offset the risk in the afternoon. Overall another few rounds of severe storms likely tomorrow.
Damaging Winds Risk Friday
Similar to the heavy rainfall risk with the thunderstorms producing strong and gusty outflow winds. There is the small chance of a tornado with thunderstorms overnight and during Friday.
Large Hail Risk Friday
A moderate risk of large hail with thunderstorms as the air is very unstable this evening. Unlike this morning, the atmosphere has been worked over so the convection at this time will be active but not as robust as this morning.
DATA - There are some data issues tonight from some of the models so cannot post the movie versions of the data. I believe there is an issue with some of the servers internationally.
More details coming up from 8am EDT on Friday.