NSW - SEVERE WEATHER CONTRACTING NORTH TONIGHT ALONG THE RANGES. SHOWERS EASING FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW

The areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms starting to move further north and east this evening as a trough moves out to the northeast with a dry slot of air starting to filter through the western and southern inland. Many areas walking away with a month’s worth of rainfall, some double that as the wet year for many continues.


Along the coast, as forecast you have been spared and that is thanks to topography, finally giving you a breather from the wet year.


Another short wave trough is expected to move into the state from Saturday and this introduces more showers over the inland this weekend before conditions clear, but for a wee moment.


SHORT TERM

Another deepening trough moving over interior WA is forecast to link up with a significant cold front passing through SWLD of WA during Tuesday and that may pull on moisture from the northwest of the nation once again leading to another widespread burst for rainfall tracking throughout the country.


The better rainfall looks to be back over in SA where they do need it, but it could spread further east if there is enough eastward motion in the low pressure system attached. Some of the modelling pulls up the low over Bight waters and others have it coming through at pace into the southeast of the nation this time next week.


Under both scenarios the bulk of the wet weather would once again be on and west of the divide through the state.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

Looking further a field, and the low that brings the wet weather to southern Australia once again next week clears off towards the southeast and eastern inland of the country. With the SAM tending positive possibly, there is the chance of a southeast to easterly flow pattern to emerge in response to this bring showery weather back to the east coast of the country.


Out west, there is enough vigour in the westerly wind belt offshore the region to see cold fronts moving into the state with further showery period. Moisture as highlighted throughout today’s many video updates is expected to remain elevated leading to o widespread rainfall chances spreading in from the west once again as we move into mid month.


With moisture lingering over the ast in the onshore easterly wind regime, there is some chance that we may see moisture converge over SA, VIC and inland NSW where values once again become very high, leading to higher rainfall chances again. This would be from mid month onwards for the end of the month too, but it is time to start watching that and making appropriate preparation for follow up rainfall, which could be anomalous.


Given the north of the nation remains above normal in terms of temperatures so early in the season, this airmass will be propelled southwards into the cold air and if we see moisture get involved again, then a wild weather system like the one now in the east could be repeated before too long.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 4TH AUGUST 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Areas of moderate to heavy thundery rainfall on and west of the divide has begun to shift further north throughout the interior of NSW today with that process continuing this evening and by morning most inland areas away from the north should be brighter and much cooler as drier air is moved into the inland. A little rain should reach the coastal areas with thick cloud cover. A series of short-wave troughs moving over the southeast of the nation may spark more showers and storms over the weekend but the coverage of rainfall more scattered and potluck as the airmass begins to slowly stabilise, the showery weather will ease by Sunday. Starting next week, conditions look pretty good with a high overhead, but we start to see the next change take shape off SA with another pulse of moisture working southwards into the Bight and linking into a strong cold front that is moving in, cold air behind that feature should wrap into the warm moist air and low pressure is expected in the Bight. That may bring a large cloud band through SA, and into western NSW by the time we get to mid next week with another wet end to a working week expected.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms continuing along the clash zone where the cooler drier air is meeting the warm moist air with the jet stream winds, some damaging winds gusts are possible with storms, but the risk is low. There may be some scattered thunder early in the morning and to about dawn along the southern coastal areas of VIC and SA and in the afternoon over the southeast inland west of the ACT. Severe weather not expected but strong winds will be occurring during this time.

FORECAST CHARTS

August 11th-18th 2022

Moisture Watch

Moisture is expected to sweep through the southeast inland with the broad low passing through the southeast inland of the nation. There will be moisture running north through the northern tropics, but a dry southeasterly surge may win out mid to late next week before we see winds shift into the northeast again dragging in elevated values. Moisture spreading through the Indian Ocean could spread south and southeast into the western parts of the nation ahead of another strong cold front leading to widespread rainfall chances returning to WA which keeps the filling season going.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies remain elevated in the east and that is a placement mark for the potential for a return of a low into the region and then deepening offshore leading to southeasterly winds and showers for the east coast and inland rainfall transitioning through SA and NSW as well as VIC, possibly southern QLD, this area of wet weather moving eastwards. Rainfall out west also starting to increase as we see frontal weather increasing in strength from mid-month and tapping into the moisture surging southwards into the frontal weather passing through.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are heavily dependent upon the evolution of the low pressure passing out of SA into the southeast inland of the nation during the latter part of next week into the following weekend and then popping offshore the east coast. The near record values over the Top End and northwest Kimberly continue but the airmass drier as southeasterly winds return for a period. Seasonal conditions generally out west overall, with the fluctuation in temperatures throughout the period thanks to the frontal weather passing through the westerly wind belt.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information with the complex and dynamic weather expected to unfold once again next week.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Lots happening in the short and medium term and the breakdown is better covered off in the video.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Lots happening in the short and medium term and the breakdown is better covered off in the video.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - significant rainfall in the short term is easing over the coming 24hrs, showers contract back the southern and mountainous areas with the risk of some thunder. Better rainfall chances return for SA from mid next week and it is uncertain at what scale but as pointed out in the video, the chance of severe weather is still present with this feature, with heavy rainfall and strong winds possible. Rainfall chances will extend over the remainder of the southeast from this time next week.

More coming tomorrow from 8am EST, but a few more tasty weather bites will be on the Facebook page too so make sure you head over there, answer two questions, and I will let you in.

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