NSW - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE EASING THIS WEEKEND.

The showers and storms continue and severe thunderstorm and weather warnings are now in force for the wild weather this evening, overnight and through Friday.


Now there is a fair chance the heaviest of the rainfall may occur overnight and during the morning for most of the state with the bulk of the severe thunderstorms passing into QLD on Friday with left over rainfall for the southeast and east and drier cooler weather returning to much of the inland.


Timing of the worst of the weather is all over the shop on the modelling but at this time severe weather exists tonight and for most of Friday, especially the further east you are.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is heaviest in the coming 48hrs across the state as we track a decent trough and low pressure system through the state. On the western flank of the system, showers and cloudy weather will continue over the southeast but drier air will be pulled into much of the east with clearing skies and a reduction in rainfall from Saturday right through to around mid next week. Showers will ease the southeast and southern inland during Sunday afternoon and clear for Monday. Onshore easterly winds are likely to bring back the showers over the east coast. Some of that moisture may be drawn into the eastern inland and thundery weather may develop late next week. Most of what is shown here will fall by Saturday.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are ongoing tonight with severe weather likely, mainly a flash flood risk given the air is much cooler than forecast for much of the state. The thunderstorm activity contracts east and north through the state during Friday with drier air pulled into the state clearing the severe weather risks...finally.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding the main concern with thunderstorms as well as those near the path of the low pressure system as that moves east and southeast through the state. The flash flood risk will ease from the west and north during Friday and be over by evening. Maybe a pocket of flash flooding possible about the far southeast into Saturday morning depending on the low pressure placement. Flash flooding may begin after midnight over the central and southern inland.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging winds are expected to appear mainly with thunderstorms, the main low pressure system is expected to broaden so the damaging winds threat is not elevated near the feature but mainly with the storm activity. Isolated tornados cannot be ruled out but is lower than today.

Large Hail Risk Friday

Low chance of large hail with the thunderstorm activity passing through the southern and central areas of the state on the back side of a heavy rain band as the low pressure system works through to the coast by evening.

Riverine Flood Risk - This Week

No change to the guidance for flooding to persist with and following heavy rainfall and for inland areas. The latest guidance not as heavy with the secondary system. But with this type of weather, expect the unexpected

Farmers and Graziers - Friday through Monday. A gusty cold southwest flow in the wake of the low with heavy showers and gale force winds with temperatures up to 12C below average will continue from Friday through until Sunday night or Monday. This will carry a very high risk of stock loss for those in southern VIC and extend into southern NSW and the ACT. The winds milder in the westerly flow on the east coast in lee of the divide.

DATA - Analysis can be found in the video at the top.


00z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Again focus shifts to the next round of weather after the dry cooler spell across much of the nation, the question will be, do we have repeat systems coming through the nation from a week's time?

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The drier air is sweeping out the tropical moisture in the coming 36hrs with conditions turning much more settled across much of the inland, but note in the medium term, the moisture cycle starts again, and continues to build up throughout the back half of the month, for those that don't want rain, this is not what you want to see.

00z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - two rainfall events to come in the 2 weeks from today.

More details tonight from 9pm looking at the next batch of rainfall and humidity coming down the pipe for the end of the month.


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