NSW - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND CONTRACTS EAST FRIDAY.

Wild weather continues to unfold over the eastern third of the nation including much of NSW as a trough lifts deep moisture, there is excellent dynamics in place, storms will be easily able to rotate, creating an environment for violent weather to unfold for some locations.


Elsewhere, cold air wrapping around a weakening low over SA will be propelled into the southern and central inland, this air although unstable, will not promote severe weather, however small hail is possible with storms and some of that could still cause issues for crops in the central and southern inland parts of the state.


The weather begins to ease over the weekend and high pressure by Sunday, we are feeling pretty good with sunshine.


Next week, the winds shift into the east with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the coastal fringe as an unstable flow establishes on top of a high pressure system and a coastal trough may form.


This time next week, the weakening storm front from WA which brings them severe weather, passes into the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the picture for inland communities.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be heavy and intense under thunderstorms, but you know the rule, scattered uneven totals the next 36hrs. The more concentrated rainfall is expected through the southern inland and southeast with periods of rain and a few storms to develop with the passage of a low to the south of the state. The weather dries out, but more rainfall, this time scattered to widespread falls for eastern coastal areas can be expected to kick off next week and run through the outlook. The next trough may bring storms back to the inland from this time next week, as that trough out of the west runs into the moisture being drawn in via easterly winds.

Heavy rain still a significant risk for southeast VIC and extending through Alpine areas into southeast NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Violent weather this evening will gradually ease off overnight but will return once again through Friday morning and afternoon, but the timing of the trough passing through will determine where the severe weather sets up. At this stage, the further northeast you go the higher your chance of seeing severe weather once again, all modes of severe weather is possible on Friday. In the south, showers and thunderstorms will develop as a cold air field moves over the southern and central inland. Small hail and gusty winds are possible but severe weather is not likely with the wind fields relaxing and the forcing lessening.

Tornado Risk Friday

Once again, the risk of one or two tornados associated with supercell thunderstorm activity is possible on Friday. The tornado risk contracts into QLD and offshore during the afternoon. There may be a brief isolated weak tornado over southern and central inland parts as the wind shear slowly becomes more linear.

Large Hail Risk Friday

Large hail will feature with scattered severe thunderstorms over the coming 24 hours. The main risk zone is in the warmer airmass and where the forcing and instability is greatest as well as the wind shear more favorable, sending the convection into motion. That is likely over the far northeast of NSW during Friday before that risk shifts east and north. Giant hail in excess of 5cm is possible once again.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding is a risk across the northern inland and northeast during Friday with strong to severe storms, more likely to appear with the multicellular thunderstorms, and where storms train over the same region for a longer duration. Supercellular thunderstorms with exceptional rainfall rates will also cause flash flooding.

Farmers and Graziers Risk Remainder of this week.

The BoM have cancelled the warning, but the risk in my opinion continues but should ease from Saturday for southeast areas.

Riverine Flood Risk Friday through Sunday

The riverine flood risk continues in the same areas with no change to the guidance in wrap around rainfall for southern VIC in the coming 48hrs. Plenty of rain this week has caused flooding through northeastern NSW.

DATA - More information can be found in the video at the top.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

00Z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

As mentioned I need to have a moment to catch my breath ahead of another busy day tomorrow - so more weather coming up after 7am EDT.


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