NSW - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

Some easing in conditions from the west will begin to develop from later Thursday but the clearance won't full take place for the entire state until about Friday.


Even on Saturday, the air is still conditionally unstable over the east and scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again but the coverage less intense with the atmosphere warming and becoming more stable.


There have been hints of follow up systems rolling through the south and east next week, lets take a look at that risk as well.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall continues to be widespread and moderate to heavy at times, some of the storms being capable of dropping a months worth of rain in a sitting. The atmosphere is very unstable and the deep moisture making the convective weather very efficient producers of rain. Areas of rain over the south and southeast will continue tonight but the rain pushing away during Thursday, replaced by more showers and storms in a soupy airmass. Then another round of severe storms on Friday with more moderate to heavy falls, mainly over the east and northeast. The weekend looking drier throughout. Next week, a trough may bring patchy rain for southern inland areas during Monday, moving east Tuesday ahead of a chance to dry out over the east and south.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are likely to continue from tonight through Thursday, but becoming more widespread about western plains and the GDR during the afternoon and evening, the most severe weather over central and northern areas. All modes of severe weather is possible. Dry air will begin to be drawn in from the northwest during the day clearing conditions over the inland. Storms will attempt to reach the coast but will weaken on approach, however expect the unexpected with thunderstorms in Spring.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Flash flooding has been reported from a few locations today and the risk continues overnight and into Thursday. The highest risk is expected over the central and northern inland parts of the state Thursday before that risk spreads into the GDR during the afternoon and evening. The highest risk from Cooma through Canberra and up to Dubbo and Walgett and points east.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds gusts are a high chance in the same region where you will find the flash flooding risk, on and east of the trough. The damaging winds risk may be elevated to very high during the morning. The risk is highest during the afternoon and evening as storms form another squall line along the trough as it is moving east, as we have seen this afternoon over parts of western and central parts of the state. The risk will diminish on the eastern side of the GDR at this stage.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Large to giant hail is a risk during Thursday afternoon and evening, especially if the daytime heating process can be fully realised. Any rain cooled air left over from todays convection may limit hail risk during the morning and this will be reviewed during the morning, but the current parameters are pointing to at least a scattered high risk for large hail over northern NSW.

Tornado Risk Thursday

Slight risk of an isolated tornado over central and northern NSW with the squall line and in discrete cells that form ahead of the trough Thursday afternoon.

Riverine Flood Risk Thursday to Saturday

There are flood warnings out for some parts of NSW this evening and these will continue to expand as more heavy rainfall comes down during the next 2 days. The greatest risk is over the southeast inland of the state west of the divide.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing for the next 3 days with areas of rain as well with moderate falls. Just wet weather with increased risk of flooding. The west remains wet and stormy with two troughs in the coming days. The north is looking humid with a few showers and storms over the northern Top End most days this week coming. Remain weather aware across areas over the east. More rainfall is possible next week with a series of fronts and troughs but the confidence is fairly low at this time, but there is no excessively hot or cold weather, no severe weather threats nationwide beyond the events of this week.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW anomalies running high hence the significant coverage of rainfall and storms this morning throughout the south and east with warmer overnights and a humid feel to the air. This still expected to linger until the weekend. Another burst of moisture coming through the southwest of the nation with storms forecast and soupy weather over the north with PW values increasing to above average, leading to early build up. The moisture recycles next week through the interior with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over interior parts which will then be drifting east. Some chance of rainfall returning beyond this outlook to the eastern and southeast inland and the tropics tending more active.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall unchanged from this morning, there is follow up potential next week which you find out more about in the video and in the medium term forecast package from this morning.

A closer look in

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Find out more in the blog video at the top of the page.

I will be taking the night off to recharge my batteries ahead of a big day tomorrow. Stay weather aware.

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