NSW - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST - STORMS SHIFT EASTWARDS.

And the west, enjoying some sunny and calm conditions today and the remainder of the week into the weekend as a high noses in from the west. In the east, we still have a trough sparking showers and storms tonight and this will move eastwards on Friday before clearing later tomorrow.


In the southeast the rain is increasing this evening and will be torrential at times in some locations on and east of the divide. The latest guide has backed off a little on the heavy falls which is good but over 60mm has fallen so far in some areas and heavy rainfall is yet to peak.


Storms over the ACT and surrounds may produce locally intense rainfall tonight and through Friday morning.


Lets take a look at the week ahead.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is heavy for the southeast during the coming 36hrs with riverine and flash flood risk persisting. The weather is set to remain settled on and west of the divide from tomorrow with the rainfall contracting east overnight into that southeast corner, mainly from Yass Valley eastwards. The storms in the east will contract further north into QLD during Friday and the weekend everywhere away from the southeast will be dry. Next week dry weather to kick off the week, however a weak trough may produce scattered showers and storms for the southeast and ACT from Wednesday before that storm focus moves north from Thursday next week and persists into the following weekend. This week coming is a good chance to dry out for many areas over the inland.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue over the southeast embedded in the rain band with locally heavy falls and flash flooding. Thunderstorms this afternoon on and east of the divide will continue overnight into Friday with more storms to fire off along the trough during Friday afternoon. Those could be severe with heavy rainfall the main concern.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Heavy rainfall is likely to lead to pockets of flash flooding about the southeast of NSW and nearby the ACT during the coming 24hrs with heavy bands of rain and thunderstorms in the region. Scattered thunderstorms over the northeast will likely produce heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding.

Riverine Flood Risk Next 72hrs

The heavy rainfall developing over the southeast of NSW now poses the highest concern for renewed and new flooding over the region. This may include parts of the ACT as well depending on where the convergent bands of rainfall develop. Stay weather aware.

DATA - I take you through the short and medium term details for ease of access in the video.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The main rainfall event for the nation is happening right now and once that is off the board through the southeast, the weather for the nation is turning drier as a whole with warming temperatures. Even the northern tropics will see a reduction in weather thanks to drier air being pushed through though watch that small tropical low over the Arafura Sea in the next week. Otherwise it is warmer, drier and more stable for much of the next 7 days. Finally.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Once we lose the moisture in the east, the air turns drier with more sunny days than not in the coming week. Though note the moisture returns over northern and eastern Australia as the weather begins to turn more unsettled as the SAM tends positive again and the easterly winds return following the fast flow pattern over southern Australia next week, which leads to the heat being shared around.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - the placement of the upper low will determine the spread of rainfall overnight and Friday. And the rainfall gradient will be very tight in some locations.

Temperature Anomalies - December 14-20th 2021

A sharp shift to warmer and drier weather nationally will result in moderate heatwave conditions for inland areas of SA, eastern WA, southern NT and perhaps western NSW and QLD. Dry heat with a north wind leading to elevated fire dangers in these regions as well, but less likely the further east you go. The west by contrast, cooler, with persistent onshore westerly winds. The weather over the north is dependent upon the movement of tropical mischief over the Arafura Sea.

I will be working further on the App this evening and have another update tomorrow from 7am EDT and a look at the 6 week outlook as well. Can we snag much drier weather?





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