NSW - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHEAST - SEVERE STORMS FOR THE INLAND.

The weather is still very active and dynamic across the eastern half of the state at the moment with a deep moisture layer, deep trough aloft and at the surface and reasonable wind shear to support severe weather continuing through many areas over the coming days.


The highest concern is that northeast corner where thunderstorms could turn severe with intense rainfall again throughout the next 24hrs, some areas walking away with around 300-500mm of rainfall to come! That will be confined to the far northeast if it does eventuate.


As we head towards the south and remainder of the coastal areas, along the GDR and through the western plains, storms will will continue amongst the widespread showers with locally heavy falls possible and the threat of flash flooding also remains in many areas today, but contracting east tomorrow.


Over the weekend the storm activity may reduce a little bit as the troughs weaken and open up a little bit, but another middle level trough is anticipated to arrive from the west Sunday into Monday with another round of severe weather possible for early next week.


A drier westerly change could kick the moisture out and bring about a drying trend with cooler air later next week if the SAM turns negative for a brief moment.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very intense along parts of the North Coast and adjacent inland to the QLD border. Some areas could see additional rainfall totals of 300-500mm if the bands of heavy rainfall are pulled onshore. Fingers crossed it is not but I have drawn that in as the risk is too great at the moment on top of what has already fallen. The uneven distribution of rainfall continues for the remainder of the east with heavy rainfall expected with thunderstorms. More widespread falls for southern and central inland NSW expected early next week with a middle level trough working in from the west and that could see all modes of severe weather on the board as well with heavy rainfall featuring too. Showers will continue for the east coast but not in the coverage seen in recent days. Finally, we may see a drier trend as we push into the back half of next week into the weekend as a westerly change moves in dropping temperatures and kicking the humidity north.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will continue from this evening through Friday with locally severe thunderstorms over the east coast with intense rainfall north of about Port Macquarie at the moment. There will be scattered thunderstorms, some severe over inland areas with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding also possible once again. The severe weather thresholds will begin to ease over the east coast during Friday evening into Saturday

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding is a very high chance along the coast with dangerous flooding possible tonight and tomorrow morning over the east coast north of Port Macquarie. There is also the chance of flash flooding over the inland, the higher risk over the GDR during the afternoon and evening and down in the southeast.

DATA - Refer to video for more information


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pressure pattern remains dynamic and the main areas that I will repeat need pointing out. The potential cyclone development over northern Australia, especially the feature off Darwin carries some high concern of severe weather. The east coast still expected to see significant rainfall with large scale risk of flooding continuing overnight and through Friday before easing. Severe storm outbreak is of some concern over the southeast inland from Sunday through Tuesday with further flash flood risks possible. The west is hot and dry with high fire dangers but conditions may begin to cool from mid week with the pattern mobilising a little more. Overall the weather for SA is dry, but coastal areas and some Ag areas may see some light and patchy rainfall with limited moisture via thunderstorms. Otherwise central areas remain dry and warm to hot. But watch the moisture over the north and northeast.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Very high moisture levels over the nation's north and east is leading to widespread heavy rainfall and flooding potential, with severe thunderstorms featuring for many areas as well. The west and central areas seeing mainly dry air for the period, but this looks to get overridden by the movement of the tropical moisture from northern Australia moving south over the next 2 weeks.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

CMC 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - rainfall numbers will begin to ease along the east coast over the coming days but remain elevated, but not as high as what we have seen.

More weather coming up from 8am EDT.


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