\9\A slow clearing trend is underway with the low pressure system over the east slowly moving off and this is allowing for winds to drop off this evening.

Satellite shows the low moving away this afternoon with a cold airmass still sitting over the eastern inland with a thin deck of low cloud hanging over the ranges with limited rainfall occurring away from the coast. Clearer skies west of the divide.

Showers continue for on and east of the ranges, with less than 2mm over inland areas. The most persistent rainfall near the Tinderry Range southeast of Canberra.

The main weather risk over the coming day or two is the morning frost, which could be severe through parts of southern and central inland parts of the state, west of the divide where the skies are clearer and winds are lighter thanks to be in the shadow of the GDR in a southeast flow.

The weather will improve further during Thursday for most areas, showers still likely over the southeast.

Friday another trough will set up over southeast NSW and combine with moisture and colder air aloft to trigger another period of moderate to heavy showers for the South Coast and adjacent inland.

That eases during Saturday, but yet another trough will move through during Sunday with another bout of showers, maybe a thunderstorm.

The cool weather continues now through until the weekend but that will change, the weather moving above average once we can get a northwest flow going pulling in the warm dry airmass from northwest Australia.

But next week the temperatures are set to rise well above average for much of the inland west of the divide and seasonal values along the coast. The temperatures could be into the 30s in some parts of the west.

Next week as outlined in the medium term forecasting, we have to watch the development of the front over WA. This system will either come through full force with widespread rainfall or it may be driven southeast by a blocking pattern in the Tasman Sea that sets up temporarily.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Putting all the the elements together above as the commentary has not changed from the medium term forecasting this morning, we have got a decent drop of rainfall expected for the southeast of NSW and that is thanks to the cold pool combining with deeper moisture with the departing low sending up a pulse of moist air, and meeting that colder airmass will see heavy rainfall on Friday. Then we have a weakening front and trough passing through over inland parts of the southeast with widespread showers developing during Sunday. Then we have the major rainfall event that sweeps in from the west with some decent potential for rainfall increasing mid to late next week.

I will have more during Thursday morning.

44 views0 comments