NSW - SETTLED SPRING WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - THE RAIN IS BACK FRIDAY.

And that rain could turn heavy across the weekend with the chance of severe weather developing along and near a low pressure system developing over southeast areas. Thunderstorms will bring the risk of flash flooding over the east and southeast.


But also an issue across the region will be the path of a low pressure system that will move in from the west with areas of heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk as well. Now this part of the system looks to be over VIC but could drift north in coming updates so stay up to date.


There is further rainfall developing next week as well along the coast with onshore winds and with yet another deepening low pressure system over the interior parts of the nation.


Lets take a look at the latest

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall begins to return from about Thursday afternoon over the western areas of the state, especially running along the VIC border with a weak middle level trough moving through. Falls mainly light and patchy and there is the risk of thunder. Then from Saturday a broader band of thunderstorms is expected to fire up along a new trough emerging from SA with that band of thunderstorms flattening out into areas of rain as it moves towards the southern and eastern areas. The rain patchier further north but with the warmer air, thunderstorms are expected to fire up on Sunday afternoon with locally heavy falls. The rain eases during Monday with the low moving away. Another low is expected to approach from the interior of the nation with showers/storms redeveloping. Onshore winds will also bring showers to coastal areas as well during next week. I will draw the regional charts once confidence increases but it is looking wetter on modelling this evening.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday.

Convergent winds over the higher parts of the Great Dividing Range will likely lead to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Moderate rainfall expected with localised gusty winds.

Flood Risk This Weekend

Rainfall heavy at times this weekend may lead to additional flooding throughout the southern interior of NSW and into VIC with some areas likely to see another 1 month's worth of rainfall. Thunderstorms could also produce flash flooding.

DATA - More details can be found in the video at the top


00Z CMC - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

I am aligning more with the CMC and Euro on this sequence, the GFS is just not rendering the outlook as per the major data sets given that the GFS ensemble data is wetter than what is publicly available. At this stage we have 2 large scale rainfall events to watch through southern and eastern parts of the nation during this period. Also the tropics are expected to fire up in response to the record heat we have been observing during the past few days. The response to that is a sharp increase in convective activity. That has been my experience from living there for many years and this model sees that. The moisture deepens throughout the majority of the nation next week with the second system and the rainfall chance extend once again mainly over the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. WA may see more rainfall again with this first system during the coming 36hrs and once again with the developing 2nd system later in the weekend. Above average rainfall and generally below average temperatures (away from the tropics) is expected during this period.

00Z CMC - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video above for more details.

00Z CMC - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video above for more details

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Rainfall is expected to be heaviest in a band from southern WA through Agricultural SA into VIC and southern NSW and the ACT with the first feature. Storms for central and northern parts of NSW in the warmer sector of this system. The second system will provide more widespread rainfall and increase rainfall over the northern tropics and spread that throughout the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.

A closer look in. Your number will continue to evolve.

I will have the latest on all things rainfall and the modelling tonight - the divergence is still present across the board, but I will break down what is plausible and what is not in the update after 9pm




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