Summer weather continues to unfold for the next few days, indeed there is the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms over the southeast and about the ACT and parts of the inland but overall, seasonal conditions with weather expected to remain hot west of the divide. That heat will reach the coast later this week ahead of the next easterly change.

So there is not a lot happening at the moment in terms of severe weather, but the dry weather offers it's own benefits too, a chance to dry out! Which was not looking possible about a week ago...we now have a chance to which for some is welcome news.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very much below average through this period over inland areas, and while it is below average, it follows record rainfall so it is neither here nor there around being concerned about that. The weather will turn more unsettled along coastal areas with an easterly flow developing this weekend with a few showers. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms over the elevated terrain of the southeast and ACT over the coming days. But overall the rainfall lean and many areas remaining dry.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible about the Gippsland ranges and through southeast NSW about the Snowy Mountain country with mainly light rainfall about the region. They may drift into the southern ACT.

DATA - Refer to video for the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

No change from this morning which means a settled 7 days for much of the nation can be expected with no severe weather events at this time. The bulk of the inland of the nation dry under sinking air motion coupled with dry air. The coastal areas out through northwest WA is where you will find the wettest weather in the country. The tropics also expecting to see below average rainfall and thunderstorm activity for the coming week and above average temperatures. The east coast will see some light showers, but overall a drier and quieter week of weather with onshore winds at times. A good degree of variation in the temperatures over southern Australia throughout the period with the fast flow pattern which is reflected in the cold front activity south of the nation

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Very dry air nationally means low rainfall chances for the coming week. Some evidence that begins to be overridden in the medium term, but exactly how that looks remains uncertain at this time with the fast flow pattern likely to be with southern Australia for the coming week and possibly the following week. Each wave introducing more dry air over the nation and suppressing rainfall chances. With winds remaining out of the west, this will keep moisture content low over the inland areas as well.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video for further information

A closer look in - the drier signal is continuing thanks to the out of phase MJO and negative SAM this week.

More details coming up from 8am EDT - enjoy the quiet weather pattern - it is helping me recharge my batteries ahead of the next crazy wave of weather which won't be too far away with the latest indications that La Nina may be with us until the end of April!! More on that later this week.

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