Still no real change to the guidance over the coming days - for farmers, weather fans and those who love rain and storms, the action is next week at this time. And the guidance will continue to chop and change (or refine as I like to say).
So let us look at the latest details.
Rainfall Next 10 days
Rainfall is limited to next week as you saw in the video and as I keep saying do not get caught up on the colours, use them as a guide to seeing where the higher probability of rainfall will emerge in the coming week. Beyond the 7 day window the weather is expected to turn quite wet, the signal on several models is to bring a months worth of rainfall to the state with heavy falls capable of producing riverine flooding over southeast NSW west of the divide and over the northeast of VIC.
Areas of flood risk in the coming 10 days
Again a highlighted zone is for a heads up if you are living in this zone for renewed flood risks next week. Not a warning but if you are a farmer, you know the deal and know the catchments in the region are saturated. Convective rainfall from Tuesday to the end of next week could provide some moderate to heavy falls.
Frost Risk Thursday Morning
Frost risk again quite high for inland areas of the east with a chance of severe frosts over parts of the GDR and along the western slopes. The frost lighter on the plains and I have removed the far west out of the risk area, but still chilly so be aware of the risks Thursday morning, the risk eases Friday as seasonal weather returns.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
The pressure pattern quiet until this weekend. The weather over the southwest remains warm to hot ahead of a trough developing bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region, not widespread falls but some decent storms could develop over the southern interior. A new high passing through the southeast of the nation will bring a southeast change up the NSW coast driving light showers, which will then move into SEQ during early next week. This front will stall out over QLD while a trough forms over inland QLD. Onshore southeast winds will feed the trough driving showers and thunderstorms. The moisture then moves south in an upper northerly flow and will be lifted by the trough coming out of WA to see showers and storms break out. The rest of the north of the nation turns hot and humid ahead of weather turning thundery into early October.
Euro 00z -Precipitable Water - Next 10 days
The PW Anomalies paint the same picture. The dry air leading to the dry skies and settled weather under the high will take about 5 days to be eroded by moisture coming in from the easterly winds and over the west of the nation via the Indian Ocean. This moisture looks to converge over eastern Australia which is where you will find the heavier of the rainfall next week. Another surge of moisture comes in from the northwest of the nation and moisture left over from the lead system next week remains over the eastern inland leading to another chance of rainfall breaking out at the end of the month into early October from WA through to VIC and NSW. Up north, the humidity returns from the weekend with suppressed build up conditions expected next week.
Euro 00z - Rainfall - Next 10 days
Rainfall largely unchanged from this morning with the pattern shift taking place this weekend over the east with humidity returning. That will break out in showers for the coast of NSW and QLD and inland showers and thunderstorms for central and southern QLD early next week. Another trough over the west bringing showers and thunderstorms with that system expected to move eastwards into the moisture coming over the eastern inland, so this is where at this time, the bulk of the wet weather will unfold next week. Heavy falls are possible. Rainfall will return after this period with a follow up system from WA, through SA and into the eastern inland during early October, just outside of this window. You see no rainfall with the Euro but there is moisture available and with broad troughing, rainfall is likely to break out in that configuration.
NSW View - THIS WILL CHANGE - Refer to my later post at 9pm tonight looking at the full suite of rainfall data for those needing to know how much is coming.
More at 9pm tonight.