Rainfall has been widespread late Thursday into Friday morning through the western half of NSW with 5-12mm of rainfall so far and that rainfall is spreading east. A cold light rain is expected for central and eastern areas of NSW today, coastal areas will remain dry.

The low responsible is opening up into a trough as a northwesterly wind profile starts to strengthen. A front moving in from the Bight will help that process, it arrives in SA later today.

Satellite Imagery

There is significant cloud passing through the east, but the lifting mechanism is weakening so the rainfall rates are light as expected, but the rainfall is lasting a number of hours so the totals slowly scrape towards 5-10mm over the inland. The rainfall is contracting eastwards today.

State of Play - Valid 7am EST.

A front will pass through and lead to a cold and wintry weekend with gusty westerly winds, showery periods for the south of the state and low level snowfalls. The airmass is not as moist as last week so the rainfall will be much more scattered, and it will be more about the windy cold weather, more than the rainfall totals this time around.

More frontal weather continues to clip the state with light rainfall for the southern inland and further light snowfalls over Alpine areas. Northern areas should be dry in a milder northwest flow, closer to the ridge.

The next major rainfall does look to be in about a week from today as we profiled last night, however there are is some divergence in the modelling around that, which is not always a bad thing, it may mean the frontal weather is breaking down into the medium term.

12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern again largely unchanged for the coming 2 weeks with the flow still out of the west for the best part of the next 2 weeks. But models (as I was alluding to late last night) are starting to break down the pattern towards the end of the first week of August. Well this morning modelling is now trying to push the westerly wind belt further south in about 8 days time and that could be enough to break the pattern down and reset the moisture over the Indian Ocean. If that happens, showery westerly winds will ease, the days will get warmer as we get into August. The system that follows this shift could be much more productive as it is not propelled through the east and southeast at about 150 knots. For those hanging out for more inland rainfall and by the end of the first week of August that could be many, it does look better for the end of the first week of August or into the second week of August. For now it is a persistence forecast for the coming 10 days with strong frontal systems to pass through and the burst of acute cold to continue.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall is productive in the westerly wind profile still. There has been little change in that. However the modelling is picking up on two cloud bands (I will take a look at that later this morning) later next week and then again next weekend. That could bring some significant rainfall for the southern half of the state. The dry signal continues for the northern inland of NSW.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The surface pattern is largely unchanged from last night, however there has been a shift in the modelling from last night, where we have more cut off systems developing later next week, which could be also in response to the westerly wind regime weakening and falling southwards as the pattern flips. If that happens, we could see more inland rainfall developing in early August as the moisture from the northwest and north can pool over the inland rather than being blasted across the nation. And winds may veer into the east, with some light showers developing for coastal areas who have been dry for a while. For now it is a persistence forecast for at least the next 7-10 days but these are the elements to watch over the coming period.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Not much change since last night but I do expect this to start picking up on the rain bands developing next week. There are some reasonable falls none the less for the week over southern inland areas and along the GDR. After the rainfall today and tomorrow, the northern inland turns dry and the coast mostly dry for the week after today. Rainfall may increase later next week statewide.

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall looks largely unchanged but with the low moving east and taking much of the rainfall with it from western areas, numbers have come down, but I have kept light rainfall in place for inland areas for next week with westerly winds and fronts clipping the region, despite some models delivering another 10-30mm throughout. I am not convinced of that just yet. Rainfall numbers will be higher along the GDR and throughout the southern inland, the closer you are to VIC. And over the northern inland, rain about the coming 24hrs and maybe a shower here and there, but light falls expected away from the GDR. Coastal areas could see patchy rainfall of 1-3mm over the coming 36hrs.

I will have more details on the moisture in the Indian Ocean later this morning, update the Climate Drivers for the coming 2 weeks and brief update on August and track that rainfall throughout the day to see who is going to see what over the coming 24hrs.

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