Unsettled through parts of the southeast today and across the inland with mainly light and patchy rainfall. Some heavier bursts of rainfall near some wind convergence over the southeast will generally clear this evening.
The main rainfall set to unfold across NSW is expected Monday with a strong cold front on the way. The cold front presenting beautifully on satellite imagery this afternoon.
Strong cold front is passing through WA this afternoon and moving east this evening. Some strong storms and a decent band of rain is attached to this system.
The front will then tap into a higher moisture values in the upper atmosphere that is streaming south and east through Central Australia today and will be lifted into thick cloud on Monday with rain breaking out through most of the state as the front approaches.
Rain will end west to east through Tuesday with a colder southwest to westerly wind developing in the wake of the front. Some locations inland could receive 10-20mm from this event and some higher falls of up to 40mm possible about the Northern Tablelands.
Showery weather will contract through southern areas on Wednesday with the weather markedly improving on Thursday and Friday as the high pressure ridge noses in and starts to take control of the weather.
I think next weekend we will be under settled skies and a calmer period of weather to enjoy.
We will be looking at the moisture building as always beyond the short term and you can find more details on that in the medium term forecast package at the top of the blog front page.
Lets look at modelling
00z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern next 16 days
Rainfall breaks out through Monday afternoon over SA and VIC before increasing over NSW and southern QLD Monday night into Tuesday. Moderate rainfall is possible in states. The best of it falling on and west of the divide NSW during Monday night and then contracting north through the state during Tuesday. A cold and gusty southwest flow will pass over SA and VIC first on Monday afternoon and then NSW and QLD during Tuesday and the drier and colder air moving through to inland QLD Wednesday bringing a shift to seasonal weather. The weather will clear out through inland NSW during mid week and the cloud will then clear up through Friday as drier air moves in. The east coast, mostly dry through the week apart from some patchy rainfall about Monday night and Tuesday.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
Precipitable Water Values paint the picture of that moisture surging southeast ahead of the front coming in tomorrow and Tuesday. The cloud expected to rapidly thicken over the inland of NSW and QLD later Monday with rain areas developing later in the day over the western inland and reach the GDR overnight into Tuesday. The rainfall then contracting north through the state during Tuesday and clearing out Wednesday. Cloudy cool skies may persist over the inland during Wednesday and break up from Thursday while the coast remains dry and partly cloudy. Dry weather and sunny skies likely from next Friday into the weekend with a breather from the wet weather.
00z GFS Rainfall next 10 days
Rainfall largely confined to this first part of the week coming with likely to be minimal rainfall from mid week over inland areas. It may actually be dry statewide for about 4-5 days with the high ridging in and bringing about stable air. GFS prints out more rainfall with frontal weather returning early the following week but this is low confidence given the pattern is shifting around in the medium term and so I will update the medium term details again tomorrow. For now some drying out is possible from mid week.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The Euro is very similar in the short term to the GFS with the bulk of the weather coming through the southern states during the next 4 days with the last of the major fronts coming from WA through SA and into the eastern inland during Monday. The best of the rainfall for NSW falling on and west of the divide in the southeast and northeast. The weather then improves as we track high pressure into the region from mid to late week and the air becomes drier and more stable. Next week, the models are struggling to pin down a solution. I have shown you in recent days, the modelling all on board to build moisture over northern Australia. Tonight the modelling is shifted from that stance with another belt of westerly winds developing, but again it is low confidence forecasting with the SAM very much split in terms of members going positive and negative, the outcome large in terms of how that spreads the weather around the region.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall in line with most global models, the bulk falling in the coming 4 days, then drying out over the inland really from mid week as winds turn drier westerly and ease. The weekend looks to be dry statewide as we get the high sitting over the eastern inland but now the Euro, like GFS is bringing back frontal weather for early next week, with moisture possibly being drawn over southern areas of the nation increasing rainfall chances again, but once again it is low confidence forecasting. I want to get this system off the board rolling through the east over the coming 2 days.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
As per the GFS there is a pattern flip occurring in the outlook period, but it seems like it is stuttering along with another belt of westerly winds next week possible before we see stronger high pressure coming in from the west towards the second week of August. But more details on the medium term forecasting can be found at the top of the blog front page.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall falling on and west of the divide and it could be a rather productive event for some. The moisture is deeper the further north you go through NSW with there likely to be falls over 15mm for many areas on the western slopes of the GDR, grading to above 40mm for some living on Northern Tablelands. The weather dries out from mid week for the inland and later this week for the far south bordering VIC. Next week there are signals for rainfall to return but I have not drawn this is due to low confidence.
More weather details to come on Monday morning.