NSW - RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY, WILD WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.

The weather is set to remain humid and sultry, with showers and thunderstorms about from time to time right through the period to come. The persistence of the moisture, wet weather and lower than average temperatures in the east, all a factor of La Nina.


Heat levels over the west of NSW will also come down as clouds and rainfall chances come up in the coming days which will be welcome.


The weekend offers severe weather potential and that may extend into Australia Day so lets take a look at the latest.


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in waves through this period with a wave of showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow with the arrival of moisture from Tiffany moving through. We have then a pool of moisture that will stay behind and be lifted by a trough, that will be moving west bound through the state, thanks to upper northeast winds. The trough will extend to the west of the state by the latter part of the week and combine with another trough over SA to see more widespread showers and thunderstorms for western NSW which will then extend back across the state as the trough moves east this weekend and into next week. It looks very unsettled for a number of days through the weekend and next week with the risk of severe weather.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast mainly over northern parts of NSW during Tuesday with the axis of the heaviest thunderstorms over the northern inland and across towards the central inland. Thunderstorms carry the risk of heavy rainfall and damaging winds as the main concerns at this time. The risk will run down into the southeast but only thanks to topography aiding development.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Flash flooding is the primary concern during Tuesday with the deep moisture layer meaning thunderstorms will produce heavy falls in quick time.

Severe Weather Watch - January 22-27 2022

Watching a significant system moving out of SA through this weekend and into next week which carries the risk of severe storms and heavy rainfall leading to riverine flooding. More details as we get closer.

DATA - More on the data in the video at the top of the page.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video for more guidance, there are changes in the modelling expected in the coming days, but this gives you the very latest breakdown in daily analysis for the short and medium term, but I do stress it will change.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The most moisture I have seen cover the nation in about a decade at this time of year means that some areas regardless of modelling, will be clobbered!

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

A closer look in - some really high values being presented here in the short and medium term! It will change but some areas could cop a hiding to round out January.

More weather coming up later this evening looking at all the modelling and rainfall information again, seeing how the SA trough performs across the data sets and the tropical system over northern Australia with impacts into the medium term.




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