NSW - RAIN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUING FOR FRIDAY

Rain has been falling over the west of the state today and that is moving steadily east tonight with the some moderate falls about the Lower Western District. The moderate falls could be repeated through parts of the Riverina, Central West and through to the Southwest Slopes, Southern Highlands/Tablelands and ACT during the coming 24 hours.


The rain is expected to be mostly light but over a number of hours.


Saturday morning we have a front that will blast through the southeast inland bringing a batch of showers and strong winds, which could reach gale force over parts of NSW, especially in the south, along the divide and east of the divide south of Taree. Winds could be damaging at times.


Then we have the cold airmass to deal with, which it being coupled with the squally showers and high winds, this is a dangerous mix for stock exposed to the elements.


The snowfalls are expected to descend to low levels through NSW during Saturday, possibly down to 600m, but the air is tending dry so the snowfalls could be limited, but if moisture gets involved, then we could see snowfalls becoming a little more widespread.


Next week the showers will develop once again with downstream fronts weakening in the northwest flow. Light falls for the most part and confined to the south.


Stronger fronts approach later in the week.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern is fast flowing but the waves embedded are likely to favour southern portions of the state with moderate to heavy falls over the Alpine region and those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime. There are some signals the pattern breaks down as we track towards the end of the first week of August, but there are some strong systems to work through over this period.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall again largely unchanged for the coming 10 days and this is thanks to the persistent weather pattern above. Some lighter falls possible over the north tonight and Friday but really it is the further south you come where you will find the bulk of the wet weather over the coming 10 days.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The surface pressure pattern is unchanged for the region that means more changeable weather with larger fluctuations in the temperatures as the fronts roll through and ridging builds in between the fronts. So that makes it tricky to forecast the temperatures ahead of time. Rainfall will be more widespread the further south and southeast you go west of the divide. The rainfall light and patchy after the low moves away from the north tomorrow. There are signals for more cloud and rain to break out across the region later next week.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall has not changed that much in the overall spread from the models tonight and that will continue for the coming days. The only change I think we will see is in the coverage of rainfall later next week with the cloud bands developing from the northwest of the nation. These could be more productive than what has been advertised tonight.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days again is largely unchanged thanks to the westerly wind profile and the frontal weather coming through. Rainfall tonight and through Friday the most widespread rainfall expected during this period. Then the southern half of the state and mountains will see the bulk of the rainfall in the coming week. Not much for those in northern NSW after Friday. A passing shower is possible in a cold wind.

More weather details to come.

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