In the short term, generally fine and dry weather for inland areas with high pressure ridging through and a drier airmass in control. For areas along the coast, a few showers to feature most days with an onshore flow. Some of that could lead to moderate rainfall accumulation.

Be aware that there could be some light frost about higher ground in the south and southeast tonight. Growers be on alert for that.

Now as we move through the weekend, the airmass is forecast to become warmer and more humid as the airstream begins to shift into the northeast and starts to drag in some moisture from the tropics. A trough is still likely to form over inland areas of the nation between the Gulf Of Carpentaria and extend southwards into the SA region leading to a band of showers and thunderstorms forecast to develop from about Sunday.

Next week that activity should begin to move eastwards with a decent chance of rain and thunderstorms being present across the state. The heaviest of the rainfall from this event looks to be on and west of the divide.

A long wave trough passing into the Bight could bring the next band of more organised rainfall but act to knock out the upper level disturbances and this leading to more typical weather for this time of year with the temperatures easing and more rainfall opportunities are forecast as well as we move into early May.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be strictly coastal through to about the weekend in an onshore flow but the weather for the east, scattered showers in an onshore flow could lead to more moderate rainfall for coastal communities. Some areas may see 25-50mm through the period. The next rainfall for the inland begins from about Saturday at the earliest but more likely from Sunday and into next week with a deep moisture supply and a trough slowly moving through from the east leading to more widespread follow up rainfall. But rainfall totals are tricky to pin down for now, so keep watch in the coming days and updates.

Frost Risk Forecast Thursday

A low end risk of frost developing about the far southeast near the ACT during Thursday morning.

MEDIUM TERM - April 27th - May 4th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Moisture over the southern parts of the nation will drive more rainfall with heavier falls for those areas exposed to the westerly flow. Given the elevated SSTs around Australia, this will play out with above average rainfall chances once again, as seen with the last system, many areas scored higher in rainfall totals than modelling suggested and this logic must be applied while we have the elevated SSTs in place. Northern and eastern areas will see near seasonal conditions with a few pockets getting lucky in the far northeast for further beneficial late season falls.

Moisture Spread

Moisture should be on by the east with the main rain event off the board. The next wave of unstable weather south of the nation will bring a band of cloud and rainfall to southern and southwest Australia. Onshore winds over the east will bring showers and cloud and lingering late season moisture will be found over northern areas of the nation with more late season falls.

Temperature Anomalies

The temperatures have now reverted back to warmer across the nation as the next rain event is now contained into the shorter term forecast. There looks to be a colder bias still for areas over southwest Australia with frontal weather and about the northeast of QLD with onshore winds. Warmer and more humid air over the Top End and parts of the Kimberly. The upper northwest winds will bring that warmer air into the southeast states.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pattern looks very much what you would expect through a period of transition. Please refer to the video for more information about the significant rainfall potential for Ag Areas over the coming 2 weeks and to put into context what you will be seeing across the data sets tonight.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies- Next 2 Weeks

The weather is certainly drying out over the course of the next 3-4 days with the most humid air reserved for the northeast tropics and across the east coast in onshore winds. The moisture is still forecast to move south and west through the east of the nation before we see a large moisture plume come ashore through WA and this races west ahead of a developing cold front over the southwest of the nation. This will merge with the moisture over the east to keep the rainfall chances going. This period looks to be quite volatile so expect to see more changes across southern and eastern Australia.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - once again your numbers will chop and change so be aware of that but multiple rainfall events are quite possible in the next two weeks.

I am under the weather covering the weather and I will have the next update from 8am EDT, pending the voice it may just be a written update but more to come! A very busy weather period on the way.

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