And that sets the stage for a fairly settled period of weather coming up this weekend.
The rain band is moving through VIC and southern NSW while another band of rain is expected to form in the moist air drawn into the southeast from QLD and northern NSW in recent days, the front the lifting mechanism running into this airmass producing more widespread falls this evening and into the early morning.
Satellite Imagery shows the band of rainfall moving through VIC, clearing over SA and the rainfall coming into southern NSW. Note the moisture running down the GDR from QLD through NSW, this was well picked up by the models over the weekend.
Most areas of southern NSW should see 2-5mm but the east could see 10-25mm over the Southwest Slopes and Alpine areas where that will also fall as snow in amongst the rainfall.
The weather gradually clears from the west by morning and really a dry and cooler day with sunshine for the state with the warmer air relocating into QLD with that southerly surge
The boundary slows down during Friday and over the weekend, the winds likely to shift into the east over the state as high pressure moves over SA. This will bring back the chance of low clouds and showers for the east.
Next week as discussed earlier today in the Indian Ocean and medium term forecast update, it is becoming tricky to pin down how much moisture will be drawn south and east as it changes from run to run to run. So will take a look at that in the modelling below.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
After the front passing through the southeast and east of the nation tonight the weather is expected to settle down for most with high pressure dominating. The flat ridge will consolidate through the weekend and bring mostly fine and dry weather for the coming week over inland areas for now. Along the south coast, weak fronts passing over the southwest and the southeast in the early part of the weekend out west and Monday out east may trigger a few showers. But the model confidence is expected to remain low from later in the weekend with most models chopping and changing throughout the coming medium term. The highest chance of rainfall for the coming period will be tonight through Thursday and then again over the east coast with onshore winds.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
After tonight for most areas away from the eastern and southern coast, it is dry for a while with high pressure taking over the nation. Next major chance of rainfall on this particular run comes through WA from mid next week with a strong front emerging from the southwest and that links into moisture near a weak trough, potentially spreading a broad area of rain throughout the southern and eastern inland from later next week so at this stage it looks like a week between events for most of the south. Up north the humidity is increasing further throughout the outlook with showers about, a shift in the season is underway early this year.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The PW values are still following the same song and dance, drier air flushing out the moisture over the east tonight and tomorrow, and pushing it into QLD. The weather then dry under high pressure through much of the south, the moisture relocating to the north of the nation. The pattern flip continues to evolve this week. Then the moisture returns through the west of the nation being drawn south and east via the jet stream. Moisture over the east coast remains high thanks to onshore winds persisting throughout the period. This moisture may also spread south and west through the nation from later next week.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Latest Euro is much drier than the GFS through the entire run again this evening for next week. In fact as you go through the outlook period it is the complete opposite which makes forecasting near impossible next week. The rainfall should be over the for the south and east by the end of tomorrow with a settled spell under high pressure, we spoke about that dominance of high pressure mid month, then the weather starting to turn for the second half of the month. I am still siding with GFS and CMC in the medium term.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall is lean for the upcoming week with the falls mainly coastal with vast areas of the inland remaining rain free under the belt of high pressure. Moisture may be reintroduced later next week which could bring rainfall a little further inland over the southeast states but right now the forecast is low confidence and this will change. The one consistent message is that the pattern flip that was forecast 4 weeks ago is now near complete and then we start looking towards the rainfall returning for the back half of the month.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
PW values are completely opposite to the GFS in the medium term, however there is reasonable agreement in the short term with the passage of a frontal boundary this evening through the southeast then high pressure coming. Showers return to the east coast with elevated moisture levels thanks to onshore winds. Otherwise the model turns very dry through much of the inland which I am not buying at this time.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
After the rain tonight through southern and southeast NSW which will ride up the GDR during the morning, the weather should be dry for a while over much of inland NSW. The weather warming up too through the weekend. The winds turn into the east over the far north of NSW now, with showers expected there, the remainder of the coast looks dry for now. Then we have to watch the next major change that is still slated for later next week which brings the next chance of widespread rainfall.
More weather coming up Thursday