NSW - RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN

Overnight rain and a few storms have brought some reasonable August rainfall to inland parts of NSW, with the frontal boundary responsible for lifting the moisture over the eastern inland, moving eastwards.


Satellite Imagery

Rain band over northern NSW will continue to move eastwards this afternoon with moderate falls and a few storms possible. The thunderstorm activity isolated but will deliver top up moderate falls. Showers over the southern inland beginning to decrease as the weather dries out over the western inland. A cold pool of air sits over southwest VIC. Rain and showers also clearing east through VIC.

Rainfall to 7am.

Most extensive across the northern parts of NSW with some areas in the northeast recording 30mm of rainfall overnight. 10mm around the Orange region with some thunderstorm activity last night. The light rainfall over the western and southern inland netted about 5-8mm generally.

The weather will trend drier and colder through northern and northwestern parts of the state today, but the cold air and unstable airmass over the southern and central inland will bring the chance of showers and possibly some thunder and hail.


The falls are likely are expected to be light behind the rain band with the airmass dry and cold.


There will be another shot of moisture that arrives in the southerly flow aloft mid week, another round of light showers and thick cloud cover for southern and central inland NSW will persist, only starting to break up during Thursday.


Once we lose the cloud over the inland, the risk of frost increases for much of the inland.


The weather trending sunnier and warmer through the state from Friday and into the weekend, a northwest flow developing will see those day times move above the average.


Next week, we are keeping an eye on the frontal weather that is moving in from WA with areas of rainfall possibly moving over the southern states but the weather is very hard to pin down.


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The last of the waves is passing through the southeast states today and a drier and colder airmass can be seen moving through SA this morning, that will also move east and north this morning. The weather will remain cold and cloudy through the southeast states for the next couple of days, though inland areas of NSW, QLD and SA should see clearer weather as will the east coast. A high moving over WA will move over southern parts of the nation, that bringing a spell of settled weather from later this week into the weekend. Fine and hot over the north with humidity values rising dramatically as the winds veer northeast. Then we watch frontal weather come back for the west of the nation, that progressing east into the medium term bringing up rainfall chances with the chance of another northwest cloud band developing.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

The bulk of the wet weather coming during the next 2 days but then dry for a while. The next batch of rainfall comes through next week and then a major rainfall event if GFS is right coming through during the medium term, mid month from the central parts of the nation.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The elevated PW values are expected to be replaced by colder drier air today, with that drier surge sweeping through NSW and QLD by later today and clearing out the humidity by tomorrow. The drier air will continue to dominate inland areas with low level moisture keeping the low cloud in place for much of the southeast. Drier air and stable northwest winds will clear skies over the southeast with the next surge of moisture coming in ahead of the weekend front, producing widespread rainfall for WA. That moisture then moves eastwards over next week with light rainfall for now, but note the dry air is hard to find mid month increasing inland rainfall chances mid month.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Very good agreement with the modelling this morning, the last wave passing through this morning and tending to clear the southeast by Wednesday. A high ridging in will then start to clear out the southeast and eastern inland with drier and sunnier weather expected this weekend. Then next week the frontal weather from WA will spread into the eastern states with that being the chance for more widespread light follow up rainfall from SA through southeastern inland parts of the nation.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall has mostly fallen this morning, and this model depicts a lot of the rainfall that fell overnight and during this morning. So essentially dry weather for inland areas until next week. Coastal showers for SA, VIC and eastern NSW will be light and patchy for the coming 5 days before we have another batch of rain approaching during this time next week.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The moisture is moving out this morning and will clear the eastern inland and off the east coast by Wednesday with a dry southerly surge moving in. That dry air will clear the cloud over inland areas, but low level moisture over the southeast states will keep cloud going the further south you are until about Thursday. The weather is resetting this week, and with a high coming through the southern states, the moisture will also reset. Another cloud band develops from the west this weekend and moisture begins to increase over the eastern inland in easterly winds. That like the GFS, then increases the rainfall chances for the nation from mid month, with the western parts of the nation seeing wet weather from as early as this week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is dropping away as we are in between long waves and high pressure should dominate the next 5 days or so. Perhaps some light rainfall returning from early next week at the earliest for the southeast states. Showers may developing for the east coast in onshore winds with the falls remaining light. Moisture builds up next week with temperatures increasing over inland areas. That will be next chance to see rainfall increase over inland areas.

The state based climate updates will be available from lunchtime today. Another look at the medium term moisture for those who are prepping for the next rainfall.




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