NSW - RAIN DECREASING OVER THE EAST TONIGHT - STORMS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND.

And with the decreasing rainfall and cloud cover, those hanging out for a bit of sunshine in the east, there will be a bit about this weekend.


BUT, that heating process over the course of the weekend over inland areas ahead of the next trough and given the moisture in the atmosphere is going absolutely no where, this next trough is expected to increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls, flash flooding a high concern and damaging winds.


The trough will likely move through by Monday afternoon so southern areas you turn marginally drier with rainfall decreasing, but the severe storm risks continue for the northern and eastern districts.


Another strong trough is looking more likely to emerge out of SA through mid next week and this is also dragging in a lot of moisture out of the northwest Indian Ocean and projecting that right through the nation with widespread rainfall and thunderstorms likely to develop again from mid next week with more severe weather potential.


There are not too many dry days, especially the further east you go.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has been extensive during the past 48hrs over the state and this rainfall is likely to stick around from later tomorrow and more likely Sunday into Monday. The rainfall uneven in distribution so again with thunderstorms some of you will get clobbered while others will see light rainfall and a lot of noise. The rainfall will contract east and north during Monday afternoon. The showers and storms may continue for parts of the east and north during Tuesday with the trough lingering. Another trough from SA looks set to approach from mid next week and run into the residual moisture and further showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out with moderate to heavy rainfall and high moisture levels likely for the back half of next week with a severe weather risk. The system next week carries some degree of concern for flood risks and damage to crops and disruption to logistics. I am not satisfied in the model confidence so keeping the forecast broad so you can see the changes across the region.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over a wide area of NSW during the afternoon and evening. In the east, residual instability coupled with the high moisture levels will lead to heavy rainfall with some pockets of flash flooding, but risk is low. The stronger thunderstorms will be found over the southwest of the state closer to the approaching trough where damaging winds and heavy rainfall are likely. These storms will move across southern areas during the late afternoon and evening and reach the Riverina at night.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging winds a low to moderate risk over the far west but more likely over VIC and eastern SA.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding a moderate to high risk over the far southwest but more likely through VIC where the trough will be draped through the state. The flash flood risk increases for NSW during Sunday.

DATA - More can be found in the video.


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

I will mention that the low pressure system coming out of WA through next week poses the biggest threat to farming and logistics/freight operations - this system is being poorly modelled at the moment and will be updated regularly here through the weekend.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Note the constant stream of moisture passing over the northwest of the nation and being fed into the jet stream and propelled into the southern and eastern inland with troughs and northern tips of frontal weather. These values are well above average.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The above average moisture values will dominate much of the outlook period for large parts of eastern and northern Australia. That said, as you will see tonight, the GFS is one of the driest models at the moment.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in.

More weather after 9pm tonight looking at all things rainfall.




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