The weather certainly more winter like today with a cold cloudy day with periods of rain with moderate to heavy falls about overnight with the chance of some areas getting about a month's worth of rainfall, certainly leading to the Autumn Break that many need as we head into full sowing mode.
Coastal areas and over the northern parts of the state will see a reduction in temperature on Wednesday as a southerly shift moves up the coast and a drier westerly flow develops inland.
Showers for the coast from tomorrow, increasing through the end of the week into the weekend as the flow shifts into the east. Some of the showers could be heavy at times if the wind bearing shifts more northeasterly in advance of an inland upper low.
The upper low across the inland could be quite productive in terms of further follow up rainfall potential as well. This looks to occur from ANZAC Day onwards with further frontal weather emerging through WA with a cloud band also likely leading to additional rainfall through early May.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is moderate to heavy in spots tonight with the passage of a deepening low pressure system over southern inland areas with the chance of a storm. The rain will likely end from west to east through the overnight hours and be gone during Wednesday. Showers developing along the coast in a southeasterly shift with moderate falls develop Thursday through the weekend as a high moves into the Tasman Sea. The weather for the inland generally dry until about next Monday when moisture begins to shift southwards and southwest from QLD and links up to an upper trough and low over SA. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to emerge along this trough and the scale and orientation of this system is expected to be a challenge to forecast for the coming days so expect further changes.
MEDIUM TERM - April 26th - May 3rd 2022
Not much change to the rainfall anomalies expectations through this period with a large rainfall event likely ongoing through the interior from ANZAC Day before that sweeps south and east over the remainder for the end of the month and into early May. The west could see another burst of rain band developing via the jet stream and Indian Ocean. Noting the rainfall over the northeast tropics also continuing at above average levels.
Widespread moisture is expected to be featuring across much of the nation as large rainfall events continue to unfold in light of the pattern shift. Another moisture infeed is likely to emerge through the west of the nation during the period, adding to the wet and moist atmosphere.
Widespread cloud over inland areas will lead to below average conditions. The only warm pockets will be found away from cloud and in a drier airmass which will be over the northwest of the country and over the southwest with easterly winds bringing warmer and drier air to these regions with sunny skies. Elsewhere, cooler and wetter.
DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
More details can be found in the video with the daily breakdown but I do caution that now we are moving on one weather system in the east, we will get a better handle on rainfall over the coming days for southern, central and eastern Australia. Be aware that your forecasts may dry up or become wetter and then flip. This is normal and expected. Over the northern tropics, things are still very active for this time of year and will help to populate more rainfall events into May from the west.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
A very deep moisture layer across the nation is ongoing for the southeast and eastern inland but this should move on out by Thursday. During the latter part of the week, the moisture over the northern tropics will continue to deepen and spread south and southwest with widespread rainfall opportunities beckoning with this moisture likely to be lifted by a trough over the interior. More moisture spreading out of the Indian Ocean is forecast to play a part in increasing rainfall opportunities for western parts of the nation.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Note the differences on the CMC to the GFS. This is why my forecast is so broad and will likely change in the coming days.
00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
And the Euro is different to the other models but more robust with the moisture over those northern areas of QLD. That would be beneficial for them as well.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
A closer look in - these numbers will bounce around and rather that updating again tonight we will wait again to morning once we lose the overnight rainfall from the totals below that is ongoing for inland areas. We can then get a sense of where the heavier rainfall is forecast to emerge.
More coming up from 8am EST where we will see what the next wave of data brings us, with the weather system moving out off the NSW coast during mid week, the system over the central interior of the nation will become clearer as we go along.