NSW - RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST TONIGHT - DRY AND SETTLED NEXT WEEK.

Much cooler air expected to spread from the west overnight and throughout during Saturday and Sunday with the southwest to southerly flow following a trough, expected to bring substantial rainfall throughout the state, especially west of the divide and along the southern border with VIC.


Already some locations have exceeded rainfall totals forecast in eastern SA and northwest with this system.


Lets have a look at the latest.

FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

The thunderstorm and areas of rain have started to move east and the storm risk will begin to wind down overnight as the main dynamic forcing is pulling to the southeast of VIC with a trough lagging behind driving areas of rain and moderate to heavy falls overnight and then continuing through Saturday.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

A low chance of thunderstorms within a large area of cloud with periods of rainfall snuffing the surface based instability so less thunderstorm activity expected. There may be enhanced rainfall rates if thunderstorms develop but they will be fairly isolated in the band moving slowly east.

Flood Watch

The flood watches continue with rainfall due over the green highlighted zones during the coming 24hrs, the rain has just started to move into eastern Melbourne this afternoon.

Farmers and Graziers be advised of a sharp drop in temperatures this weekend with the rainfall over the south posing the most risk. Windy weather over southeast VIC and southeast NSW on Sunday also cause for some concern.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall really is contained within the system moving through the coming 24-48hrs with a cooler airmass moving north and drier weather sweeping through the inland, by Sunday the weather is drier with lingering rainfall over the northeast of NSW gone. Then dry weather next week with a new high pressure system moving in from the west with that dominating proceedings. Perhaps a weak system moving in from the west next weekend which looks to impact the southeast coastal areas at best, with not much rainfall just yet in this period beyond the main event this weekend.

Southwest NSW and Northwest VIC - Most has come down on the border and this rain is moving eastwards tonight. Rainfall will be uneven in distribution with thunderstorms!

Southeast NSW and Eastern VIC - Note the heavy falls over Alpine areas, flash flooding is possible during the coming 24 hours - Wild card will the potential low over the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC early Sunday.

Northern NSW and Southern QLD - Rainfall struggles to push north and east through southern inland parts of QLD. Patchy falls for the northern coast.

Tristate - Most of this coming down tonight and tomorrow morning before heading east.

Central West - Most of this coming down during Saturday into Sunday morning.

THE DATA

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

It has been a long road to get to consistent forecasting this week, but it is good to see that most are in agreement in the rainfall spread throughout the east of the nation, with the rainfall distribution uneven thanks to thunderstorms. Next week high pressure takes over, as per the GFS we are looking very quiet weather for most areas of the nation. The next cold front is expected to pass through the southwest of the nation from mid next week and quickly race across to the southeast next week. Then the weather should become a little more interesting as we approach mid month.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

The bulk of the rainfall is with the system through the next 2 days before high pressure takes over and keeps things benign. The rain focus will shift up over the QLD coast next week north of Townsville and then over the west we have a weakening front passing through that may bring some showers over the southwest and then the southeast mid to late next week with light falls only. Dry for the remainder of the nation as we wait for the atmosphere to recover from this event.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The moisture will be kicked out from the south to north with the southerly flow following the major trough and low that forms over the Tasman sending that dry air inland. That will be held under high pressure for all of next week, with no signals for any change strong enough to push out the large high which will dominate the weather for most of next week. Inland areas of the nation will see mostly dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures for the most part of the coming 10 days with the drier air allowing temperatures to rise and fall much more freely. The Indian Ocean is a no show still which is of some concern given the rainfall forecasts from climate models and large weather agencies.

More updates to come on Saturday with more extensive updates from Sunday. I need a gin!


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