NSW/QLD - LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN SE QLD TOO.

Some interesting signals from the morning model runs, where we still have some divergence in the placement of the heavy rainfall over coastal areas and how much shower and thunderstorm activity does emerge through inland areas of NSW as well.


So forecasts will continue to chop and change.


But the zone as to where the heaviest of the rainfall is likely to fall along the east coast is becoming a little clearer with the region between Gosford and Narooma looking the bullseye for now.


A few areas along the coast could see 200-300mm from this event so be aware, models will not pick up on the topographic rainfall in these situations so will be watching closely and I have drawn that rainfall potential in.


Areas of flooding from northwest and western areas of Sydney through to the southwest of Sydney into the Illawarra and Shoalhaven is possible with this event. Some of it could begin with major flash flooding then major flooding.


Over the central and southern inland, there could be reasonably good rainfall coverage with the offshoot moisture shooting west and bouncing on the ranges and being drawn into the upper low, and with the slow movement of the upper low, areas over the Riverina, Southwest Slopes, ACT, Central West and the Tablelands into the New England could do reasonably well for cropping farmers in these areas.


Thunderstorms that form west of the rain band and cloud cover could drop large amounts of small hail and deliver some flash flood potential.


Be weather aware.


Conditions should start to ease from Saturday.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall coverage is largely unchanged through the state but the location of the heavier rainfall is moving around and will continue to move around in line with the data sets becoming somewhat aligned. But if you are looking for full agreement with regards to this system, you are unlikely to get it, and rather we will be relying on real time observations to pin point the heaviest of the rainfall. Same can be said for thunderstorms over the inland areas with some areas likely to see some severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and large amounts of small hail a threat from these over Ag Areas so growers beware. The rainfall should gradually contract eastwards during the weekend and clear by Sunday as the airmass stablaises briefly ahead of the next front. This forecast will be adjusted this evening and zoomed in charts will be provided.

Riverine Flood Risk - Wednesday through Saturday

The flood risk is growing for the Metropolitan coast southwards to the VIC border and for the adjacent coastal escarpment where falls in this zone could clear 100mm throughout the period widespread but spot falls throughout this zone could nudge 300mm. So this will once again see rivers rise through to moderate flood levels once again at least, possibly major flooding again.

Flash Flood Risk - Wednesday through Saturday

No real change to the guidance related to flash flooding but the focus has shifted a little further south from yesterday and that is good news for residents in the northeast districts for now but still keep watching. The rainfall rates could top 40-50mm an hour in some locations from Sydney southwards to the VIC border over the coming days. Moderate rainfall over inland areas over a long duration could see some low impact flash flooding develop too. Thunderstorms over interior parts of NSW will deliver a risk of flash flooding but the coverage of thunderstorms is scattered at best with many areas missing out on a storm. But be weather aware.

Severe Weather Watch - Friday through Sunday

Onshore winds combining with the trough over the eastern inland and convergence via the tropical low moving south parallel to the coast may see a spell of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding Friday night through Sunday morning. Some areas could see 200mm of rainfall in quick time if the ingredients come together. The risk is currently 20% for this to occur but given the nerves out there, important to advise there is a LOW RISK of further severe weather developing this weekend.

Refer to the video for more information related to the data sets below


GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 5 Days

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GFS Rainfall - Next 5 Days

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CMC - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 5 Days

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CMC Rainfall - Next 5 Days

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Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 3 Days

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Euro Rainfall - Next 3 Days

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ICON Rainfall - Next 5 Days

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More coming up in the evening forecast packages.