The weather finally looking to adopt a drier and much more calmer look with minimal low pressure and rainfall forecast now for inland areas, with the system that was anticipated to scoot in from SA through to the east now likely to collapse leading to light rainfall and cloud cover at times this week, but widespread heavy rainfall, not expected for now.

Things can still change, but I think the weather through Easter is forecast to be much more stable than what we were looking at last week which is good. The more robust rainfall events may start to emerge in between Easter and ANZAC Day perhaps.

There may be a patchy rain band tomorrow for the southeast with possible thunder but not much in the way of meaningful rainfall. Similar can be said later this week for southern areas but the bulk of the state should be dry.

A few showers along the coast will be few and far between with the SAM remaining neutral which is great and it should stay there for a while with some luck.

That opens the door for some of the tropical moisture spreading south and southeast from the north into frontal weather or troughs emerging through the Southern Ocean as mentioned through the medium term, so will be watching that period closely

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall thankfully ahs turned lean over much of the state after what has been a very wet phase for the eastern half. Some locations have smashed through their April averages, but some areas over the west and southwest have turned dry. So for the state it is a mixed odds forecast. Light falls are forecast to emerge through the outlook period with systems passing through, forecast to be weaker and less dynamic at this time. Rainfall may begin to increase about the east coast next weekend with new high pressure moving into the southeast. But even here, the falls are forecast to be moderate at best. More robust rainfall and severe weather potential exists in the medium term. But for now, quieter rainfall forecasts are expected for the run into Easter and over Easter.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Only a few showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the southeast and near the ACT during the afternoon and evening, with one or two falls near 10mm. No severe weather is expected.


Moisture Watch Next Week

Moisture spreading through northern Australia will work it's way into the Indian Ocean and then turn to the south and then southeast via the jet stream. The moisture will then have an opportunity of running into the southern ocean via cold fronts and troughs south of the nation, meaning that a large cloud band will set up along the thermal gradient and this is where we will see rain break out. This may reach southern SA towards SA and the southeast and east thereafter, if high pressure in the east allows.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies all over the board in the outlook period which is par for the course this time of year. The tropics dictating the terms of rainfall spread through the short and medium and term. Above average rainfall to continue over northern Australia will spread southwest into WA. Moisture over the Indian Ocean will likely sweep into the jet stream and a cloud is forecast to form in response bringing rainfall to interior regions of the nation. How far east that comes is determined by high pressure over the east.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to be above average for a fair chunk of inland Australia which is fair in relation to the placement of the upper ridge. Moisture rotating through northern Australia and over the Indian Ocean will lead to cloudy skies with scattered rainfall, some heavy. The southwest looking cooler than normal with persistent cloud cover and areas of rain with southerly winds. The east coast will see onshore southeast winds but rainfall should be light and more sunshine in between the cloud should see seasonal temperatures for now.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The active pressure pattern that was promised for some in the models last week, looks less likely now, as advertised, waiting to see how the system looked after we lost one severe weather event is critical, as you can see it is a very different and much less dramatic drier period for many areas. The tropics is where you find the active weather as you do across the southwest in the short term. More details on the daily break down in the video.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is a lot less than previous updates with a ridge now expected to stay in place. The moisture content over the north is near record values for this time of year and will result in above average late season rainfall, some areas could really benefit from that. Otherwise moisture near seasonal for most areas. But I am not placing too much faith in the medium term forecasting and so expect major changes to the forecast.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - note that it looks dry for many inland areas but this will likely change with the forecast guidance this week as modelling figures out what to do with the tropical incursion over northern Australia.

More coming up from 9pm EDT with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.

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