NSW - MOSTLY DRY FOR MOST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY. RAINY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW

A clearing front over the southeast of the nation is resulting in a southerly flow moving north tonight and a little low level moisture is moderating the risk of severe frosts developing for Friday morning though there will be some patchy frost about, the worst of the frost and freeze conditions is still expected on Saturday morning and that contracts eastwards on Sunday.


Following that, we have a decent chance of rainfall spreading in from the west during Sunday with local thunder possible as a trough deepens over the state in response to a weakening cold front passing through VIC. Moisture being drawn into the state from the northeasterly and northerly winds in the upper levels will support the rainfall increasing in coverage across the state.


Another large scale burst of moisture is expected to feature through the state from the northwest with the jet stream ensuring we know that the Indian Ocean is in full swing across the nation.


A wet week will likely unfold next week as multiple waves start to move through the country.


SHORT TERM

So breaking it down, a weakening system moving through the southeast and eastern parts of the country will lead to areas of rainfall Sunday with that clearing through later Monday. Another system approaching from WA which brings the chance of severe weather there will run into all the unstable and moist air over the state from Wednesday through the remainder of next week with extensive rainfall forecast on and west of the divide through the state.


There is the risk of severe weather with that second system.


Moisture may linger throughout the country’s interior and this may set up further rainfall events into the medium term as we track into the second week of August.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

It is now quite likely we are seeing that shift I have been rabbiting on about for weeks and months now playing out with the pressure pattern opening up and allowing a moist and unstable weather pattern spreading throughout the nation. Strong cold fronts meeting the moisture is expected to bring the chance of wild weather and severe weather potential.


As the moisture continues to roll throughout the country, the rainfall frequency will continue to increase and that is in line as we move into a very soggy Spring.


Watch not only the moisture profile over the northwest of the country leading back into the Indian Ocean but also moisture running through northern areas of the nation and throughout the Coral Sea running via the easterly winds.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 28TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be patchy at best tonight over the southern inland with a weak southerly flow but that should clear by tomorrow. A dry Friday and Saturday for most before we start to see showers developing from the west and over the northern inland as a weak trough over the western interior begins to get a kick along by a front to the south over Victoria. Moisture with this feature is expected to deepen as we track the trough through the state during Monday with widespread falls on and west of the divide, possibly heavy in pockets. That system moves on by during Tuesday before another band of rainfall approaches from Wednesday and Thursday with locally heavy rainfall possible over the southeast inland as that moves through. Rain continues over the inland, once again favouring on and west of the divide. The models have showed varying degrees of heavy rainfall potential with that feature. Patchier falls for the coastal areas east of the divide. Further systems looks to move through the southern parts of the nation which could draw in further moisture from the north and west of the country leading to further rainfall into the medium term.

Anywhere exposed to the westerly wind regime will see the better rainfall chances throughout the coming week or two, with the coastal areas hopefully shielded from the heaviest of the rainfall. Some of the rainfall through the southeast may lead to minor flooding.

Frost Forecast Friday Morning

A cold airmass trapped under high pressure through inland areas and nearby the coast may be severe in the colder pockets overnight and into Friday morning. Conditions warm steadily through the morning.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH

Severe Frost Saturday Morning

A nasty set up for severe frost continues into Saturday morning with some areas possibly recording temperatures as low as -10C nearby the ACT and Snowy Mountains and -7C over the Tablelands in NSW and Alpine VIC. Temperatures could be as low as -4C to -6C over inland NSW on the slopes.

FORECAST CHARTS

August 3rd-17th 2022

Moisture Watch

Deep moisture can be seen offshore WA. This moisture will take the best part of this week to traverse the country via strong cold fronts and low-pressure systems and from this time next week into the following week, we should see that moving into the eastern inland with moderate to locally heavy rainfall associated with the frontal weather and moisture moving through. Another burst of moisture running into the jet stream and into frontal weather sweeping southern Australia will likely have higher impacts over the SWLD with heavy rainfall potential there. Additional rainfall is likely to sweep through the remainder of Ag Australia through this period with the moderate to heavy burst of rainfall gradually moving offshore the eastern portions of Australia.

Moisture will be running via various ports through the nation, but the coverage is at a broad scale now, and it is uncertain where the highest impacts will be experienced regarding rainfall. But elevated temperatures are likely to feature over the north and northeast with increasing heat levels. The moisture out of the Indian Ocean may feed inland instability leading to rain and storms building. The frontal wave train will carry modest moisture values and could interact with another wave of moisture coming from the Central Indian Ocean leading to widespread falls developing across the nation's south. Whether this results in widespread above average rainfall remains to be seen given it is 2-3 weeks out.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are expected to be above the norm in the coming week for many areas with that major system clearing eastwards offshore the QLD and NSW region early in the period. Humidity and unsettled weather may lag back over the NT and pockets of inland WA, and this may be drawn southwards into the fast flow pattern continuing to bring windy showery weather for Southern Australia. Stronger fronts approaching the west may once again be accompanied by larger moisture plumes moving through the Indian Ocean.

Rainfall anomalies are driven by the moisture that lingers throughout the interior and whether that can be drawn back southwards into the fast flow pattern over Southern Australia. Frontal weather offering at least a decent chance of seasonal rainfall for this period over southern Australia. Weaker signals for rainfall being above average over northern Australia but you will notice the humidity values are likely to be on the rise as the upper-level winds and the surface level winds start to bring moisture in from the northeast and north.

Temperature Anomalies

A warmup well above the average is forecast to continue throughout the coming week and that will persist through next week with a northwest to westerly flow helping to transport that warmer air into the eastern and southeastern inland. The cooler bias over the SWLD of WA is thanks to being on the western flank of large low-pressure systems moving through the Bight and a southwesterly flow featuring. The cooler air may drift into the southern coastal areas at times.

Temperatures are forecast to continue at above average values for large areas of northern Australia with a northwesterly flow aloft dragging that warmer air into the eastern inland. Rainfall and cloud coverage over the southern and southeast inland will suppress the full warmth being realised but seasonal weather with the wet weather is expected over the south. Cooler bias remains in the west with the southwesterly flow continuing to feature here with additional rainfall.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information and context in relation to the dynamic and energetic weather pattern that will continue to throw the rainfall and temperature forecasts all over the place for the coming few days before forecasts settle down on a consensus as we track the pressure pattern in real time.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture values still remain unchanged over the coming weeks and the guidance is expected to stay very much on course with moisture spreading from northwest to southeast throughout the nation with moisture then thinning out a tad over Southern Australia as the pattern becomes more dominant westerly with the wave train but the deeper moisture over northern Australia needs watching. We could see major moisture surge over the NT and QLD which may lead to above average and early season rainfall coming through in the medium term in the presence of an upper trough.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - a vigorous westerly wind regime will keep the wettest of the weather to areas exposed to the wintertime rainfall pattern so that means these areas will be needing to watch for flood potential if rainfall rates eventuate as what is proposed for here below. Nice to see some rainfall getting back into areas such as SA, VIC and western NSW who need some rainfall while the coast in the east seems to be spared.

More coming up from 8am EST with the next weather video. I need to take a breath tonight to get my energy ahead of busy weekend. Thanks.


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