NSW - MOSTLY DRY FOR MANY INLAND THIS WEEK, SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. WARMING UP TOO!

Rainfall forecasting has come down this week which is great news for many areas for the inland which need a break to get back to operations of sowing and generally drying out!! That does look to unfold as per the forecast guidance. However, along the coast, things are looking a little damper with onshore winds developing and a trough forming near the coast in QLD. This could lead to widespread showers returning over the northern coastal areas with scattered falls down to Taree.


Some of the moisture may move westwards into the northern inland of NSW during the weekend but with high pressure strong to the south it could undermine the rainfall chances for the interior for now with warmer northeast to northerly winds emerging and above average temperatures developing with partly sunny skies.


With the clear skies developing with high pressure strengthening over TAS this week, the risk of frost is increasing from mid to late week with some heavier frost over the ACT and southeast NSW possible but lovely days to follow.


Frontal weather approaching the west of the nation will have a hard time of impacting weather here with the features forecast to slide southeast thanks to the high, but the moisture moving into the jet stream will be drawn through the interior of SA and coming into western NSW towards the end of the period.


Once the high moves out to the east we should see moisture from the northwest with widespread chances coming into play for areas on and west of the divide. Also moisture coming in via the easterly winds this weekend from QLD could be drawn southwards into the state ahead of a weakening system approaching from SA. Eventually the moisture will fold throughout the state and rainfall chances will come up to end the month.


Let's take a look.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be mainly coastal with the falls light to start with in the coming days with the rainfall totals likely to increase as the instability values creep up with a trough moving in towards QLD. The trough over QLD could produce heavy falls for the Wide Bay down into the SEQ but drift over into the NE of NSW. Lighter falls are forecast to extend down the coast. Dry weather is forecast most elsewhere inland with light winds and clear skies. Now during the weekend, the high pressure system over TAS is expected to remain slow moving so not much change in conditions across the state. It wont be until the high moves into the Tasman Sea leading to winds veering more unstable easterly with showers increasing along the coast and the moisture then being propelled into the inland. A weakening trough and cold front is coming into SA is forecast to move through to the southwest of the state but will act to introduce moisture from the northwest and the northeast and as the moisture values increase, the instability values will increase as high pressure moves further away. We should see a fairly good attempt of rainfall developing at the end of the month statewide.

The heaviest of the rainfall through the state will be located over the northeast coast and down along the exposed coast in the easterly air stream. We could see some rainfall totals increasing through the outlook for the western districts at the end of the period, but I am keeping the dry spell going through the majority of the period.

Frost Risk Forecast - Tuesday through Friday

A drier airmass is forecast to settle in from Monday and with clearer skies and the high-pressure ridge moving in, there is the chance of frost developing. The peak of frost is forecast from Wednesday and Thursday before easing later this week.

DATA - Refer to video for more context on the weather conditions at play through this period.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

There is more information contained to the video for you to review, the events to watch are the rainfall events over the west in the coming 2 days, the rain event along the QLD coast this weekend, does that move into NSW or stay further east? Then in the medium term, the rainfall focus seems to shift south through WA, to SA and into the southeast inland including VIC, southern NSW and the ACT. This could be the wettest weather via the westerly wind belt so far, this cool season for these areas.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is being shunted northwards as expected today with a drier and cooler southwesterly flow over the east with ridging moving into the Bight. On the western flank of the high, there is warmer and more humid air leading to increasing rainfall chances throughout WA and that could come into the southwest NT and western SA. Moisture is forecast to increase over QLD and spread west bound, covering much of NSW and QLD throughout the weekend and into next week which is interesting. The overall trend is supportive of more rainfall in the eastern inland of the nation though I am not drawing that in yet but watch for further updates this evening and tomorrow morning. Then we see a more mobile pressure pattern with the westerly wind belt moving north, pushing the high-pressure belt further north, leading to colder and showery weather heading for southern Ag areas of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the moisture is increasing in this latest run of the GFS for the rainfall over the eastern inland of NSW and spreads the moisture west and south ahead of frontal weather next week. Something to watch but will continue to chop and change.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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