NSW - MORE TROPICAL WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STORMY WEEKEND.

The storms are expected to feature through the west of the state this evening and during tomorrow but become more widespread as we move into Friday and across the weekend as the trough hangs up through the centre of the state. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of this trough and thanks to the deep moisture profile, the showers and thunderstorm will be efficient rainfall producers.


The trough remains in the region for the coming weekend and into next week for inland areas, not much respite from the heavy humidity and thunderstorm potential.


On the east coast, there may be an increase in showers and thunderstorms mid to late next week with a new trough forming through coastal areas and combining with easterly winds. Some chance we may see increased risk of heavier rainfall totals for on and east of the divide as we get closer to the middle if not later next week which could become a severe weather look as well.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain very much above average in many areas of the state as we move through the coming 10 days with the moisture content and pressure pattern combining to produce a tropical feel to the weather. That means the uneven distribution of rainfall will continue for many areas with the afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Some areas will get absolutely belted. Next week the trough stays in place and the humidity with the stormy weather continuing. Along the coast, easterly winds will turn more unstable with the chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing from this time next week into the first weekend of February.

There is the risk of some heavier rainfall with thunderstorms over the coming days which may lead to significant flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms once again most likely over the west and south of the state where a trough is moving very slowly east. Some of the storms have the chance of turning severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern and damaging winds. The weather will ease at night with areas of moderate rain and local thunder.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Thunderstorms will carry a high chance of producing flash flooding during the afternoon and evening with the slow movement of thunderstorms, combined with the very high levels of atmospheric moisture leading to high precipitation thunderstorms.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Thunderstorms will bring the chance of gusty winds, mainly during the afternoon and in areas that are able to warm up sufficiently.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information for the daily breakdown


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More details in the video but the takeaway items to watch is the trough over the southeast and east producing widespread showers and storms in a humid airmass. Severe weather is possible in the coming days. The tropics dominated by the monsoon, that is expected to strengthen and lead to more frequent rainfall. A tropical low may form over the northwest of WA and lead to flooding rainfall. The medium term carries a very low confidence.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture profile in the short term out to about 10 days is about right against other data sets. Very moist air being drawn through the majority of the country will be lifted by low pressure troughs to produce widespread rain and thunderstorms, locally heavy and leading to flooding over the central and western interior, through the tropics as well. The rainfall intensity and coverage should begin to ease as drier air moves in to southern areas in about 7 days. In the medium term, the forecast accuracy is very poor.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - the rainfall remains uneven in distribution - all the thousand weather apps out there will not tell you that are so therefore the guidance is poor. Refer to notes here and curated human forecasts.

More weather information on all things rainfall and modelling coming up this evening. Some major weather events are possible in the medium term.



67 views0 comments