NSW - MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COMING DAYS - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK.

The wet Summer continues for many areas of NSW, of course the arid zones are drier which they should be so for those in the lower and upper Western, very normal conditions for this time of year, however the humidity that has been in place for the past few weeks is certainly not normal for this time of year.


The trough passing through the west tonight will be kicked along by a new ridge over southeast Australia on Friday and Saturday which will lead to the gradual clearance of the showers and storms and humidity from western and southern districts for a period, but it will not flush out the humidity from central, northern and eastern areas.


In fact we could be back to having moisture covering the entire state by Monday with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage once again as the trough currently to our west, gets pulled south yet again.


The moisture from the tropical north, the remains of Tiffany, looking more likely to drift southeast into the upper northwest flow and see a rain event spread across the country, a band of rain laying northwest to southeast with the passage of that moisture is possible mid next week. Some models also indicate that the moisture and rainfall could become stuck over the eastern inland and repeated troughs currently in play may lift this into further rainfall events into the medium term.


It is a wet period for the east.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, locally severe tonight and again tomorrow with heavy falls leading to flash flooding will contract north and east by the weekend and as the trough weakens and pushes north, the coverage of rainfall will also decrease. Next week, the showers will return and they may tend heavy and persistent about the inland with local thunderstorms returning as moisture arrives from the northwest and feeds a trough over the inland. Onshore winds freshening may also lead to showery periods increasing across coastal areas as well. So next week, many places set to be humid, unsettled and damp with rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the inland and showers/rain areas for coastal areas.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms from today are expected to continue overnight and transition to elevated thunderstorms are weaken below severe thresholds later this evening. Thunderstorms will progress slowly east along the slow moving trough, making it towards the GDR by dawn with further thunderstorms expected to form from sunup through NSW. For Victoria, thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening and redevelop from the late morning over central districts, really from Melbourne metro northwards to the NSW border and points east. Thunderstorms more likely turning severe about the eastern third during the afternoon and evening. The risk will progress further northeast through NSW during the evening, but a onshore northeast flow will keep coastal areas mainly stable, with heavy showers still about.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Heavy rainfall is likely with thunderstorms that develop in the viewing area tomorrow, really from any time of day. Thunderstorms may produce more intense bursts of rainfall over the southern inland of NSW, extending into northern VIC and across to about the ACT. Some areas could see 50mm+ in an hour.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging winds are possible with the more organised thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening on Friday. Outflow winds of 100km/h are also possible in areas not impacted directly by thunderstorms, which could fell trees.

Large Hail Risk Friday

Large hail is a risk in multicellular storms during the afternoon and evening, once again in those areas not impacted by morning thunderstorms where the air can become more unstable. This will be over the central inland of NSW and along the GDR up to the northern tablelands.

Tornado Risk Friday

Slim risk of a weak tornado through the inland of NSW with sufficient shear to produce a few rotating thunderstorms.

DATA - Refer to video for more guidance and the daily breakdown.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More information can be found in the video but do understand the main point of this data, it is low confidence and will likely change again.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The one thing models do agree on is the moisture will be moved around all parts of the nation as we move through the outlook period and into the second half of this month setting up the very wet end to January and a wet February.

00Z ICON - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 8 Days

More information can be found in the video

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information in the video

A closer look in

Another update tomorrow morning from 830am EDT. I am driving back from rural NT this evening so no more from me until the morning update. Have a great evening.

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