NSW - MILDER WEATHER ON THE WAY - RAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS WEEK.

A brief dry spell continues for the next few days across the state as a high ridges in, combining with the drier air aloft leading to clearer skies. Once we lose the stronger winds through the state it will feel more pleasant and more like early spring.


The weather tonight is cold enough for frost to develop for southeast areas of NSW and the ACT. There could be a patch or two of heavier frost about these regions, but thankfully the short nights saving us from severe frosts.


The main interest clearly is in the latter part of this week into the weekend and follow up inclement weather building from this time next week. The procession of rain events continues to evolve to round out the month.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected be non existent until about Friday when a trough deepens to the west of the state through SA, with the leading part of that trough bringing patchy rain and some thunder for southern districts. The rainfall is expected to ramp up during the weekend as the second part of the trough and associated low pressure moves through the southeast. Rainfall totals are likely to evolve in the coming days but at this time I am tipping the heaviest of the rainfall through VIC but moderate rainfall for southern areas is likely, lighter falls the further north you go is more likely. There is another low pressure system to pass over northern and central areas of the state early next week with further periods of rain and thunderstorms likely. Regional charts will follow once confidence increases through the outlook period.

Frost Risk Tuesday

Frost once again a moderate risk for areas over southeast NSW and the ACT, that is with the dry air and clearer skies with light winds all combining to see temperatures drop away.

Additional Flood Risk the Weekend

The threat of more heavy rainfall about the southeast inland does pose additional flood risks over the weekend and into next week. So pay attention to forecasts if you are highlighted in a low to moderate risk zone.

DATA - Looking at the GFS tonight - you can find more details in the video above.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The moisture builds up to excessive levels through the medium term and while the rainfall prognostics look lighter than previous runs, the moisture values scream higher rainfall potential, so this forecast will continue to evolve.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Excessive values return to the north and note the surge of moisture coming through WA and through the Coral Sea into QLD through the end of the month.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in - these values will change.

More details on all things rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT. Also the 6 Week Outlook to be updated tomorrow as well.

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