NSW - LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND - RAIN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK INLAND

And in the onshore winds, the showery weather will also return to parts of the coast with showers tending heavy at times along sections of the coast, but remaining extremely coastal at this time.


The weekend offers a mixed bag across the east. Another trough will develop through the inland of QLD and extend into NSW on Saturday and there could be a decent supply of thunderstorms for the northern and central inland in a narrow band. That will become clearer tomorrow so refer to storm charts then.


That trough opens up into a broad area of instability and the isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday and into early next week but the coverage of significance will likely be Saturday through the inland.


Early next week, watching the developing trough over the Bight. Some models amplify this system into an upper low as it moves over SA and some of the models then push it into NSW and some models keep it over SA. This is where forecasting becomes tricky.


I am leaning on that system pushing through next week with another round of rain and thunderstorms following a warm to very warm period of weather.


Lets take a look at the latest details.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain largely confined to coastal areas in the coming 2 days before we see a trough deepening over inland areas from Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing as a trough moves in from QLD. Thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall now in a narrow band through northern and central inland areas so it won't be widespread. The weather likely turning more showery over the east coast during early next week with easterly winds freshening. These easterly winds will continue to feed the broad trough over NSW with scattered showers and storms about most days next week. There are indications we could see a larger scale upper level low move in mid week with the storms increasing in coverage and perhaps another fairly robust rain event for inland areas of the state once again. But the confidence is not especially high so utilise this forecast as a guide for now. As confidence grows I will be zooming in the rainfall charts again into regions and not just the state view so look out for those in the coming days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop over far northern areas of NSW east of Walgett and west of about Casino and extending as far south as perhaps Manila. Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and gusty winds but I reckon this could over the QLD side of the border for now.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding is a low chance over the far northern border communities during the afternoon and evening.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging winds is a low chance of the far northern border communities during the afternoon and evening but more likely to feature into the weekend further west across NSW.

Risk of Severe Weather Next Week

With the upper level low potential in SA moving into the unstable and somewhat moist warm air over NSW and VIC, there is the chance of thunderstorms becoming severe with this feature from mid week and a more widespread rainfall event developing. There is also a chance of another ECL forming off the coast if everything can move east out of SA later next week but I am not drawing that in just yet.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and the day to day spread of a national wrap of the weather. It puts into the context the weather to come in the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest synoptic shows troughing building over the eastern inland of the nation with the easterly wind regime, not as strong, but enough to feed moisture into these troughs to help trigger scattered falls for inland NSW and QLD. This may creep into the ACT and VIC on the holiday Monday. The east coast through this period looks showery, espeically for QLD and northern NSW. In the west we have another trough that will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow through Sunday before clearing into the east. The remains of that trough will likely merge with another trough over the Bight leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing from mid to late next week over portions of eastern SA and then increasing further over VIC, NSW and southern QLD. There is a chance we may see an ECL developing off the NSW coast in the medium term which I will acknowledge under these current circumstances is a moderate chance so will be watching closely. Otherwise the tropics will see increasing showers and thunderstorms with the chance of that moisture running southwards at some stage which could help to bring up rainfall chances into WA and SA which may see only light rainfall for now.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content across the nation in the past few days has been reduced thanks to southerly winds, you will feel that during tomorrow morning with the coolest start since last October for many. Humidity will increase over in the west in the upper levels and help spawn showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon near a trough. The moisture in the east of QLD will be pulled west by easterly winds and rainfall chances will be coming up as the trough over inland QLD and NSW also moves west. Through the weekend and into next week, with the constant northeast flow as the high sits southeast of Australia, this area of instability will draw in more moisture and broaden the risk of rainfall. The moisture from WA will merge with the moisture over the east and as an upper system moves into this large mass of humidity, widespread rainfall and thunderstorms could emerge along with a severe weather risk. The tropics seeing deepening moisture levels as the MJO moves closer to Australia and rolls over northern states. We could see that moisture drawn south through the nation via the jet stream.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information

A closer look in - refer to the video for the fly around analysis across the country - this forecast will change!!!

More information coming up from 8pm EDT looking at the models and all things rainfall and there is lots to unpack there with the potential for more widespread falls in the short and medium term. But can some be shared with areas that have missed out?

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