NSW - HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EAST - INCREASING STATEWIDE THIS WEEKEND.

The humid airmass is here to stay with a considerable deep trough over the eastern inland tonight expected to stall out and head back west tomorrow, lifting the moisture into showers and thunderstorms over the eastern 2/3rds of the state during Friday afternoon.


There is the risk of flash flooding with the heavier downpours again on Friday with gusty winds possible up over northern areas.


The coverage showers and thunderstorms are likely to increase from the west during Saturday with a new trough entering from SA. This will also carry a deep layer of moisture with it, so again the risk of heavy thunderstorms in scattered locations with flash flooding the main concern over the western and southern areas.


That will be the case again throughout the state on Sunday as the trough slowly moves eastwards.


Next week we have two systems to watch closely, one that emerges over Victoria and into the southeast of the state, will that amplify over the state or move east into the Tasman, that is a question that remains to be answered. The other system, the upper low and deep surface low that forms over WA and progresses eastwards next week, running into deep moisture still residing over the state.


Lets take a look at all of that

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Humid and unsettled with areas of rain with thunderstorms bringing the heaviest rainfall throughout the eastern half of the state tomorrow. The rainfall becomes more widespread through the weekend with heavy falls again reserved with slow moving thunderstorms. Next week the showers and thunderstorms continue for the central and eastern districts of the state, the west may see lighter totals but will continue to watch. The rainfall not clearing the state throughout this period. I will draw up regional charts either Friday or Saturday if the heavy falls continue to strengthen across the model data.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are embedded within a broad band of rain tonight so the severe weather risks are limited but flash flooding could still occur overnight and into Friday. With the brighter weather expected near a trough over central and southern inland parts of the state, thunderstorms will redevelop during the afternoon and evening with flash flooding and damaging winds a risk for the inland. Northern areas may see damaging winds from thunderstorms as well.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging winds remain a risk along a trough laying over central inland areas of NSW. The higher chances will be in areas that get warmer through the day and that may be over the northern districts and into southern QLD. A low risk elsewhere where the heavier rainfall is observed through the afternoon and evening.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash Flooding remains a concern with a significant deep layer of moisture in place and with the risk of thunderstorms broad throughout the inland, the risk of flash flooding is equally as broad, so if you get a storm, you will know about it. There is a low risk along the east coast with convergent winds and heavy showers as well.

DATA - Using GFS tonight as many of you will look heavily at the Euro - this is the drier option on the table. More information on the GFS data in the video and you can catch up with the model comparison coming up at 9pm tonight for your region.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

This pattern would be a better outcome for farmers over VIC, SA and NSW with a drier look and a chance to dry out for eastern farmers to get in and get some work done through the harvest but it is an outlier against other data sets. If the upper level system from the south comes over VIC and TAS, it may disrupt the moisture coming in from the north this time next week, and keep it through QLD. But time will tell.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

This is the driest model for the 2 week period and I will have more details on this later tonight with the full model spread.

A closer look in

More details on all things rain and moisture coming up at 9pm tonight.

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