NSW - HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS CONTINUING TO UNFOLD.

As mentioned the severe weather is continuing to unfold, lets take a look at the latest details.


Let's take a look

FOREACST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Next 2-3 days could result in some areas breaking through record rainfall for November which obviously will lead to flooding. So when does it end? The rainfall is set to clear offshore the east coast by Friday night and Saturday a colder and drier southwest flow will move through and rainfall will cease for much of the inland. For southern inland and along the western slopes, showers may continue on the western flank of the low as it moves through to the southeast before that clears early next week. More moisture and the risk of showers and thunderstorms redevelop from mid to late next week, so the break in rainfall is quite short. So there is rainfall that is added beyond this event into these totals shown below.

Central West

Tristate/Northwest

Southeast NSW

Northeast NSW

Southwest NSW

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Severe thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon, overnight and again during Thursday with waves of thunderstorms moving through in organised batches. The most prolific thunderstorm activity is expected to erupt during the afternoon and evening with all modes of severe weather possible, with only the far southeast remaining storm free Thursday.

Tornado Risk Thursday

A moderate risk of tornados for Thursday. That means there is a 25% chance of seeing a tornado within 50km of a given point on Thursday. That is significant. Not all storms will produce tornados but the risk is broad and be weather aware during this period.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

As mentioned for days and the last week, high levels of moisture being lifted by unsettled troughs and low pressure. Severe flash flooding is a high risk in saturated catchments but also elsewhere that has dodged the rainfall this period.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds are a moderate risk with favourable upper level winds being dragged down to the surface to produce high wind squalls in discrete thunderstorm activity. The difference between this and tornado forecast as this is a straight line wind risk where the tornado risk is for rotating supercells with localised destructive wind gusts.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Large hail is a low to moderate risk once again as we track through the period from tonight and again Thursday but not as high as the other elements.

Riverine Flood Risk - This Week

No change to the guidance for flooding to persist with and following heavy rainfall.

Farmers and Graziers - Friday through Monday. A gusty cold southwest flow in the wake of the low with heavy showers and gale force winds with temperatures up to 12C below average will continue from Friday through until Sunday night or Monday. This will carry a very high risk of stock loss for those in southern VIC and extend into southern NSW and the ACT. The winds milder in the westerly flow on the east coast in lee of the divide. We will also be dealing with a late season frost risk next week as well.

DATA - Analysis can be found in the video at the top.

GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days


A closer look in - there are two events beyond this current system and so therefore your number may be eclipsed in the first system alone with thunderstorms. The wet pattern continues.

More details on all things rainfall and models coming up after 9pm EDT



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