It is unclear how much of the coast will be impacted and whether we see a trough linger along the coast or whether we have a low running down the coast through the weekend and into early next week. But given that there is a lot happening through this week of forecasting it is important to flag any major weather issues.

Mid-week, an upper-level low will move into SA and then NSW with the chance of showers and possibly thunder over the inland with isolated moderate falls and the chance of hail. I want to point out that this is really a Summertime distribution of rainfall where we have a lot of convective activity, so up and down showers and storms that die at sunset.

Along the coast, scattered showers and possibly thunder is forecast to develop over northern areas and then begin to spread southwards along the coast, with some of the models supporting moderate to heavy falls, with the chance of flash flooding, but the overall trends are not of high confidence, but as per below, the region of risk is broad.

The reason for this shift back to wet weather on the east coast, is the SAM being in positive phase and this leads to easterly winds and showers along the coast. As we have seen time and time again this year, when we have an upper low or surface low over the inland, that increases the rainfall coverage and the risk of severe weather. The ingredients are available for this to occur during the weekend and into early next week.



Rainfall continues to be of low confidence, but I want to point out the risk of severe weather is increasing along the coast as we move through the coming days. As pointed out in the brief video above, the placement of the upper low, the placement of the moisture, timing and the strength of the positive SAM phase all come together to bring the risk of severe weather, but the coverage of that weather is unclear. Frustrating yes, but we cannot ignore it as the impacts could be significant and waiting to the last minute gives you no time to prepare. So I am flagging this event and giving you are blend of the modelling below in the rainfall spread, but this will change and more details coming up this evening.


Will draw in a reference point for you all to keep watch of the forecasts. If you are in the yellow zone, make sure you check back daily and even if you are near the area drawn in but not included, the weather doesn't care about where I draw the line, still pay attention. This risk zone could be drawn further west or trimmed back further north into QLD. But for now, it would be wrong to not flag this as a risk developing for the region, really from the weekend into Monday. Flash flooding and riverine flooding the main issue and some locations on current modelling could see 300mm from the event. That will become clearer as we move through the week.

More coming up from the afternoon updates.

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